Monday, June 23, 2014

SPY Multiple Timeframes

Here's a catch-up with multiple timeframe analysis in SPY, the most recent information since the last update would be the F_O_M_C reaction and just as is normally the case, the initial reaction , "knee-jerk", whether good or bad, appears to be the wrong reaction (as F_O_M_C / F_E_D events have the "knee-jerk effect" with the initial move often being faded), you'll see in some of the more detailed, shorter timeframe charts which have had time to react to the new data in the market (F_O_M_C policy announcement/Yellen press conference).
4 hour SPY

 60 min SPY isn't really scaled properly, it's as far back as I can go with history though. The first bad negative divegrence here is January and then a decline, this is when we saw late Jan (28th) accumulation in to early February launching the Feb. cycle which was entirely retraced in both the QQQ and IWM, however the SPY/SPX carried on with a 3-month range, this is when in May I suspected there was little possibility of the SPY making a significant downside move before that obvious range was taken out, shortly after the bear flag with accumulation formed mid-May (15th-19th-flag portion) which we expected to see a Crazy Ivan creating a bear trap and short squeeze which is what jump-started the move to the break above the top of the range as expected earlier in May as well as the psychological SPX $1900 level in the same place. In this configuration, creating demand to sell/short in to is the purpose of a head fake and they tend to be both proportional (compared to the 3-month range) and extreme as they have to swing sentiment to overwhelmingly bullish to create the demand that is their very purpose

*See the first bear market rally of 1929, lasting 5 months it was almost twice as long as the initial break in the Dow (1929) with a +50% gain over that period, again its purpose, before plunging to 6 more new lows until 1932 was to swing sentiment by making a believable move that people would buy.

 Dow 1929, after a nearly 8-year rally , the "Roaring 20's" and the initial break only lasting 2-months, the 5 month/ +50% counter-trend rally would have been believable.

The 1929 crash and following several years with at least 5 counter-trend rallies during this period.

SPY 30 min with the 3 month range, as well as the leading negative divegrence that we'd expect to see at a head fake rally.

 15 min chart

10 min

A closer view of the 10 min with focus on the F_O_M_C period.

 The 3 min chart showing the severe damage done the week 6/9 to 13 as expected the Friday before and the subsequent , non-confirmed F_O_M_C 1-day knee-jerk reaction.

The 2 min chart at the same area, also non-confirmation on some of the shortes/fastest timeframes.

And the 1 min chart with the severe damage done the preceding week in to the following week's F_O_M_C knee jerk move.


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