The big overnight news was in bond land where after a duo of a failed Ukrainian/Russian conference in Minsk, Belarus failed to provide anything remotely near concrete in terms of deescalation coupled with Poland's PM, TUSK, telling parliament that Russian "regular" troops are operating inside Ukraine according to their own intelligence and NATO was enough to send German Yields to record lows.
Add the latest sell side rumors from DB (after JPM yesterday) that Draghi and the ECB will engage in "Private QE" at the September 4th meeting, not traditional, but buying ABS to complement LTRO (which really is nothing new as Draghi himself has already said this) sent Italian, Spanish and German yields to record lows. In fact the German yield curve out to 3 years is negative, all German Treasuries out to 3 ears have a negative yield, major flight to safety to accept a negative yield in addition to the ECB rumors. The 10 year Bund has set a new record low (although not negative).
Obviously the Belarus peace/economic talks betweenFrench and Portuguese bonds also saw yields drop.
In Asia the Shanghai Composite was up +0.11%, the Nikkei +0.09%, Hang Seng -.62% and at last look the FTSE was +0.02%, the DAX 0% and CAC-40 -0.06%.
Gold is up this morning so far, I wouldn't be surprised to see oil/USO move soon as well and I expect gold miners will continue higher in the days ahead.
It's about looking for the pivot at this point, the right assets providing opportunities for a pivot and I think HYG, otherwise, the breadth issue that led to the bounce call on July 31st after the close is now resolved.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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