Wednesday, August 27, 2014

FEYE Update

I'm very happy for FEYE longs, however thus far today's update on the +2.7% move on top of yesterday +3.5% move is not much different than yesterday's although a breakout area to a longer term possible base we've been watching is very close.

Here's yesterday's update, FEYE Update

Here's the potential base area that FEYE is very close to breaking out of.
 On the daily chart there's capitulation or a selling climax which is the end of stage 4, however that doesn't necessarily lead to a stage 1 base right away, usually there's some more drift lower before a new base starts, this does appear to be a new base.

 This is the daily 3C chart which is in line everywhere except at the new base area, there it's leading positive.

The 4 hour chart which is still a very strong indication of underlying trends, has more detail than the daily chart and shows distribution at the last top as well as a positive and then leading positive divegrence on something similar to a double bottom or "W" base.

This 60 min chart leading positive is one of the charts that caught my attention last week that FEYE may be more than just a short term pop trade, as you can see the 60 min chart has continued to develop in to a stronger leading positive divegrence. I personally feel FEYE needs to back down a bit, do some backing and filling and allow this chart to really show us a large divergence, perhaps that will happen as we are nearing resistance today at the $29.80-$30 area.

 The 30 min chart should migrate to longer timeframes like the 60 min chart if the divergence is strong enough which this one obviously was, it also shows more detail of the July pivot high breakdown and recent accumulation.

 The 15 min chart shows the same, basically at this point we have good multiple timeframe confirmation.

The 10 min chart has been in line with the moves in FEYE, I'd suspect we'd need to see a slight negative divegrence here before a pullback of any real quality which could be used to strengthen this base area.

Until then, the intraday 1 min chart shows the same profit taking as yesterday, not heavy distribution, just profit taking, but enough of this may swing over t the 2 min chart and keep working its way to the 5/10 min charts for a pullback.

1 min FEYE intraday profit taking.

As you can see, same as yesterday, the 2 min chart is still nearly perfectly in line so there's not enough distribution to start a pullback yet. As this is the case, I'd likely pick a trailing stop if you are still holding this long unless you'd rather just hold through a potential pullback and add to at better prices.

Right now for this last 2-day move, $29.30 on a closing 15 min candle would be my stop. For options, probably tighter at $29.45 on a 10 min candle closing. For longer term position, contact me for longer term stop ideas.

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