GDX/NUGT Follow Up and the $USD Implications

The "Dovish" F_O_M_C  minutes are responsible for the knee jerk in most risk assets and the $USD dump, but what the market hasn't considered and will, this is why it's called a knee jerk reaction, is that we have been selling off on global growth expectations or lack of them which the F_E_D just admitted they are very concerned about, giving all the recent sellers even more reason to be worried.

This should have a similar effect on equities as I believe it will on GDX and NUGT, even though I'm looking for and expecting a move higher in NUGT , especially after the recent head fake move, we have to consider what gave rise to that move and what kind of move it was (the same as the rest of the market), an untrustworthy, parabolic move...

This is a parabolic move and one without the support necessary (at least for most of the market averages, GDX may be a bit different) to sustain it.

If you want to see what caused the move, just invert the $USD's price and overlay it on GDX/NUGT since 2 p.m. when the minutes came out.

GDX's recent head fake move would create this kind of a move, however I feel that it may have moved for the wrong reasons so I decided to take the gains in NUGT long.

I have little doubt the $USD is coming down after something like 15 weeks of consecutive gains, this obviously in response to POMO/QE shutting down, you can clearly see the long term 4 hour negative divergence.

 In addition, the 60 min chart's negative divegrence called this parabolic move's reversal, parabolic moves usually end as spectacularly as they begin, just in the opposite direction, you have evidence right above on a 60 min chart.

Now...

 The shorter term move in the $USD, I expect to see some near term gains as the 15 min chart is positive...

The 5 min chart is positive and finally what caused me to close NUGT long, on the $USD decline at 2 p.m.

The 1 min chart was positive in to the decline. I expect we'll see a near term pop higher in the $USD followed by a serious turn down which should send gold and GDX higher in the primary trend I expect, but I'm not sure this is it at this moment, thus NUGT may have popped for the wrong reasons and the market's knee jerk reaction may have its Achilles Heel right above in the $USD intermediate and short term divergences.

As for the P/L for NUGT, I have some members reporting in triple digit gains, I imagine those were option trades.

The position was acquired at $21.22 and filled on the closure at...

$23.94, making for a quick 12.85 gain, but no need to fret, there will be plenty of other chances, for now, it's just another gain compounding in my personal portfolio and I hope your too.