A.M. Update

Well, here we are, the early week weakness may have just flamed out yesterday as the market is now in a short term oversold condition by breadth and probably by price as well, although I care less about the later in determining oversold. I personally think we close higher today, but it's not a move I'm ready to trust just yet.

We do have some 5 min positives in the futures starting from the overnight session like...

 Russell 2000 futures have a small 5 min positive, NQ is larger, but...

ES isn't there yet.

We also have the knee jerk volatility of the F_O_M_C minutes release today, remember the knee jerk move is almost always the wrong move as we saw with the last F_O_M_C knee jerk higher.

Probabilities are not the same as a high probability trade so the fact we probably close higher today doesn't sell me on this being a move I can trust, it needs institutional support, so I want a high probability trade and low risk, that's what I'll be looking for in the markets today, a HIGH probability trade with low risk.

AA Kicks off the earnings season today which is where I thought this market would flame out on the downside for now, but there's a distinct change in the market, bad news is no longer good, lets see how long the buy the dip crowd lasts and what we can make off this market.