UNG / UGAZ Position Follow Up

The last post covering UNG was on the breakout day, Sept. 29th, UNG / UGAZ Follow Up in which I had said during the trading day...

"...addressing Cramer the night before saying he liked it, but saw a pullback below July 28th's low of $28.59. While I agree in principle, commodities are a bit different with head fake moves and as I said in the post, "I have no objective data that points to such a move being a probability".

In any case, since then UGAZ is up over 18%, our UGAZ long is up +19.32 % and it's making a breakout move today which needs to see volume pick up and hopefully some follow through so I suspect we'll know a bit more about this move of  over 3% in UNg today , by the end of the trading day, again look for the breakout to hold and increasing volume which we saw on the breakout intraday.
 Here's the range and if this weren't a commodity, I'd say a downside head fake/stop run below support would be extremely high probability, I simply had no evidence that this was any probability as of the 24th and still don't unless this breakout fails, then it might start showing signals with some probability, but overall this is an excellent long position even on a head fake move/stop run  and I think it has trend trade capability...."

Since that post, here's what has happened in UNG and the 3x long natural gas, UGAZ and what I expect to happen as the alternative scenario was laid out in the post above from Sept. 29th...OPTIONS TRADERS PAY ATTENTION...

 The break out day from the post above had nice volume, but the close was a bit weak, leaving a upper wick which is higher prices rejected intraday. The next day there was no follow through, but rather an indecision candle or loss of momentum, a Star and the following day the reversal attributes of the Star were confirmed by a bearish engulfing pattern. Anyone who has been with us for a month or so knows that this is considered a head fake price pattern, specifically a failed breakout and from failed moves come fast reversals which UNG did as our concept projected, the concept is so sturdy that it was projected as a consequence the day of the breakout before we even knew what the close looked like.

The probability now, because we have such a defined range, is a head fake move below support of the range at the $20.59 level which it just broke under by a penny.

 However the UNG chart is strong, the 60 min leading positive divegrence shows the probability of highest resolution for the range.

Here the 5 min chart shows the breakout day eventually going negative and moving lower with 3C confirmation.

There is no 1 or 2 min accumulation as of yet which suggests the target accumulation zone is below the $20.58 area which will more than likely create a head fake/stop run move lower, which we can use to enter either UNG/UGAZ long for longer term traders or UNG calls for option traders art an excellent price. The 60 min chart already tells us what the probable outcome of a head fake/stop run is, so all we need to do is verify the accumulation of stops which you'll see with increased volume as they are taken out and accumulated in large supply on the cheap, giving UNG the momentum sling shot it needs to breakout of the range and move higher so it makes for a very interesting Cal position on the move lower in to 3C strength,  that's what we'll be looking for.