Tuesday, November 18, 2014

F_O_M_C Minutes Shakeout

I'm seeing quite a few strange charts, the Futures are one...the averages intraday are another, Gold and it's very interesting divergence, now in treasuries.

I haven't put all of the pieces together yet, but it looks like some kind of shakeout , most likely having to do with the F_O_M_C minutes release tomorrow.

Whatever it is, Leading Indicators and the charts today would imply VERY strongly that it doesn't end well for the market and several asset classes, GLD may be one to pop after the shakeout.

These charts are fast developing and rather new as you saw with GLD so I don't think they last long, as for the end result, I think leading indicators tell that story otherwise they'd be moving up today to get ready for it, but since they are largely institutional assets, they can't move that fast and would be in line with the end result.I'll try to get more and put this together, but here are a few charts... The last F_O_M_C was hawkish, the minutes therefore are not likely to be market positive, but AS ALWAYS, BEWARE OF THE F_E_D KNEE JERK REACTION.



 ES TODAY WITH DISTRIBUTION THROUGH THE WHOLE MOVE, A HEAD FAKE MOVE OBVIOUSLY AS THE ROUNDING TOP IS AS ROUNDING AS YOU GET (Igloo/Chimney) and the distribution on the move is there, confirmation of a head fake move.

TF doesn't look good today either, nor do the charts of the averages.

TBT, 2x short TLT looks like it is set for a small pop, perhaps pre-minutes release, but like GLD, it looks like a small move, though sharp, just like a head fake.

The Nikkei 225 futures have seen distribution through them intraday, but more importantly was the dead cat bounce off Sunday night's carnage.


This is the 5 min NKD chart, at the green arrow is the dead cat bounce, note the leading negative divgerence, it looks like it ends just as expected Sunday night, the macro trend reasserts/asserts itself.

I'm considering entering or backing up the truck and filling out short positions, the Leading Indicators as mentioned would obviously be the strongest clue as to how any volatility shakeout would end, however many top reversals are Key 1-day reversals which require a gap up and a close below the previous day's lows, so I think it m,ay be wiser to wait for tomorrow, although in the big picture it probably doesn't matter much.

As I said, a lot of these signals are new and sharp, but short, I'll look around and try to give you a best guess of what this is, first evident in the GLD charts, but I suspect a shakeout/head fake that doesn't end well on the minutes release.

No comments: