Leading Indicators-Intraday

There are quite a few posts of the Macro divergences in leading indicators so I'm not going to be posting those anymore unless there's a material change, it's the short term timing indications I'm most interested in now.

Although there are a number of macro leading indicator posts, the most recent was yesterday so if you need a quick reference, this has quite a few, although many Leading Indicator posts also contain the macro divergences/dislocations.

As per the last post, A Number of Intraday Indicators Are Turning, here are the charts mentioned, I wanted to get it out quickly and attaching charts would have added 10 minutes.

 Although the SPX move is about +0.65%, not a huge move in itself, compared to 6 days of range bound closes in a 3 point range 2038-2041, today's move is very parabolic even if relative, although I'd call it parabolic o its own and whether up or down (like the Nikkei Sunday night when I mentioned it too was too parabolic and likely to see a dead cat bounce-just being consistent with parabolic moves), I never trust parabolic moves, they tend to end in similar fashion as they begun, with a reversal and similar momentum.

This also is a very clean and high probability head fake move, typically 80% probability of seeing one and the more obvious a  range or resistance level there is, and the more watched the asset, the more likely the move so 6 days of SPX flat is a perfect fir for a head fake move and thus far it seems to be confirming as such.

 I had to go to the macro chart on the SPX/RUT Custom Indicator because it is newer, it's in red and it tends to confirm or not confirm price movements, it should make similar new highs or lows. There's a clear macro divergence.

Also in white as part of this screen is the VIX term structure which is inverted when we have white candles (although the indicator itself is hidden here), this is a buy signal, the last one was at the August lows and here at the October lows.

Now a closer look at SPX/RUT indicator...

 This is a recent trend


 This is intraday, it is NOT confirming the SPX's move higher and instead divergent, it tends to win when there's a discrepancy between it and price.

 This is SPX (green ) vs spot VIX (blue), VIX "should" have made a lower low approximately as large as the arrow from the SPX's trendline (white) to price, it did not as VIX is still being bid up (protection from a downside move).


 VXX short term VIX futures are showing the same thing, as much as SPY is above the white trendline, VXX would normally be an equal distance BELOW its white trendline. Again VIX is holding up and has been as it is catching a bid/protection, basic supply and demand dynamics.

 The intraday VIX futures for the first time in as long as I can remember during the October move are positive (relative) on an intraday chart, they have been positive on macro trends like 60 min , but now they are finally moving to the short term timing trend/ time frames.

TLT (20 + year bond fund) usually moves opposite the SPX as seen here (I backed the chart up a bit), however today, the flight to safety trade is rallying WITH the SPX...

Here's TLT (blue) vs the SPX green, this is not normal and causing the 30 year yield divergence.

As mentioned, Yields which typically pull price to them like a magnet are dislocated intraday...

 30 year yield today vs SPX, again not normal and yields tend to win this dislocation.

 This is the 5 year, it's close from yesterday  is at the red hash mark  to give some perspective and the SPX's close from yesterday is at the green hash mark.

 And HYG/High Yield Corp Credit was used as a lever even though it's macro divergence is even larger than this, but I wanted to show it being used as a support mechanism for the market to the left, since it has been in full retreat and added a new low today.

 As well as HY Credit... Today which wants NOTHING to do with this move.

The trend here is important as well for context...

This is the macro trend

Finally Pro sentiment which has been on the run in a massive macro trend.

 Intraday it wants NOTHING to do with the SPX move

Nor does our second confirmation version.

A quick look at the average which have had all day to confirm, they are not, quite the opposite.

 SPY

QQQ

IWM