Monday, November 17, 2014

If This Doesn't Tell You SOMETHING IS VERY WRONG...

You've seen the VIX Futures accumulation on a strong and long 60 min chart, this is HUGE accumulation way beyond hedging.

 This tells you there's huge accumulation, but you don't even need this, just look at VIX vs the SPX...

This is SPX prices (green) inverted so you can see the normal correlation with VIX. To the far left is the normal correlation, they move mirror opposite each other, thus when I invert SPX prices they move almost exactly together, but look at the SPX trend which is nearly flat vs the VIX (light blue) trend which is moving higher every day for over a week, this  is telling us there's a large bid supporting VIX prices above and beyond the correlation.

The VIX today vs SPX (still inverted SPX prices)...
 look at the outperformance again today. Why is someone accumulating so much VIX they are changing the entire correlation? This is way beyond hedging.



I'm still going to try to get out that post that explains why "Credit leads and stocks follow", although we've seen it numerous times in leading indicators and top/bottoms.

High Yield Corp. Credit which has been used as a market ramping mechanism, but before the market take s a plunge, the rats leave the ship and HYG falls in front of the market, again, "Credit leads, stocks follow".


 Today's divegrence in HYG vs the SPX (green) is interesting because whatever short term move I might have expected in Friday's the "Week Ahead" post, HYG is not even interested in helping out intraday, it's full evacuation mode.

 And while this just shows the most recent HYG lever boosting equity/SPX prices and then running for the hills, as you have seen, the dislocation/negative HYG divegrence is much, much bigger than this as a new low is hit today.

Speaking of new lows, HY Credit is not manipulated the way HYG is, thus this trend should be very disturbing to anyone long this market especially after the taste of what increased volatility on the downside looks like last night in the Nikkei 225.


HY Credit not only divergent during the October rally/cycle, bt hugely so. Remember this is a risk asset just like stocks, except smart money is going the other direction. Most importantly as far as this week, look at today's divergence alone!

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