INTRADAY AND MACRO MARKET UPDATE

A lot of what is here should be read in the context of having already seen at least last night's Abe and Kuroda'a QE-Zilla Sends Japan in to a Triple Dipp Recession  (the spelling should actually be "Dip" and it should be "Quadruple" rather than triple) at least for the near term macro update (all of the charts of the past several weeks should also be considered as well as you can remember them in a macro trend context-such as VIX outperformance, VIX futures with a huge positive divegrence, Leading Indicators huge divergences, etc.)  and the previous Quick Market Update for intraday update material as well as last Friday's "week Ahead" forecast expecting "Early /Monday" strength.

If you were watching futures last night as many of you were judging by my inbox, then the concept of "3C divergences picking up where they left off on the next cash open trading day, even over a weekend" should be rather amazing because they were right on when you consider last night's break in Nikkei 225 futures, USD/JPY and thus US Index futures didn't look like it was coming back, which would have negated Friday's "Week Ahead" forecast for early week strength. You have to admit, Nikkei futures as well as US Index and USD/JPY coming back from that abyss has to be considered, "Strength" and with half the market trading green, it's a further testament to the concept.

As for intraday, I showed the TICK changing and mentioned some sharp divergences and Yields leading positive intraday.

Intraday... this is exactly along the expectations and forecasts from last night's Abe and Kuroda'a QE-Zilla Sends Japan in to a Triple Dipp Recession price action and expectations in to the cash market today from last night's lows which we actually nailed within minutes.

 The TICK trend which was mellow and contained between +/- 750 kept trending lower to make an extreme of -1500 before breaking the channel which I posted in today's Quick Market Update  which was much less defined, but this goes to show you how far in advance TICK can often lead an intraday reversal and is useful as a tool for that purpose.

The upside move has hit+1250, but a much smaller, narrower channel.

30 year yields (red) had been in line intraday with the SPX (green) until the SPX dipped a bit too much while yields held establishing a positive intraday divergence. Remember though, this is in the context of last night's forecast of this strength coming in to morning/cash market trade which we had not seen as of the forecast last night (we were still at the lows) and that strength today fading and the macro trends (negative) reasserting themselves; so we'll see the macro trend below as well.

The 3C chart from Friday and Friday's 1/2 position trade and the reason why from, Trade Idea (Swing+) TLT long via TBT Short was also part of the reason taken with yields...

 Friday I opened a TBT short (which equates to a TLT2x leveraged long or 2x long 20+ year treasury bond ETF).

I left the other half in case of a pullback toward the range lows as the charts Friday showed that as high probability, which can be seen above with a 5 min negative TLT, suggesting the pullback, essentially allowing me to fill out the full size position at better prices while still having exposure.

That divergences is starting to neutralize intraday and don't forget about the macro trend below.

Other divergences implying a quick upside move...

 NQ intraday (NASDAQ 100 futures) which were in line on the decline and posted a sharp,, but small positive divegrence.

SPY intraday mostly in line, so it wouldn't take much to create a small intraday divergence.

 QQQ like NASDAQ 100 futures intraday also showed a positive forming after having been negative this morning and in line on the downtrend. This divergence too is resolving as it moves from positive to in line and is only intraday.

IWM intraday has been in line, but the yields were still pulling on it to the upside intraday as well as TICK. This move, much smaller is also resolving to neutral and negative.

 USD/JPY (candlesticks) were at the time leading ES / SPX futures 1 min) at the red arrow and leading higher. USD/JPY looked like it had some more intraday strength, but this only came after last night, something we forecast before it was even close to evident. It appears this too is fading.

This was the 1 min $USDX at the time, it looks worse now, implying the support for the market of USD/JPY probably is not going to hold out much longer, which is exactly last night's forecast of a bounce in these assets and then the macro trend reasserting itself which I'll show (the macro trend).

The Yen at the time in line as it weakened overnight to allow USD/JPY higher with NKD futures as well as US Index futures, now the Yen is showing intraday accumulation, this was taken at the time of forecast from the "Quick market update", now the divergence (+) is building.

Macro trends...

The Nikkei 225 futures were a clear negative macro trend, see last night's post and 4 hour chart, the break down started last week and was sharply negative (distribution). What's interesting is that a negative GDP is bad news and bad news is good news for central bank actions, it appears the market interpreted this the opposite, which may reflect Abe being thrown out of office by the Japanese people tired of suffering under his monetary experiment gone very wrong. The implication is that someone knew would replace possibly Abe, the cabinet and new BOJ positions or pressure to end the QE experiment which is huge.

The 4 hour shows a much worse macro trend, the 60 min shows a sharp divegrence and large changing quickly through last week and especially from mid-week.

I showed more charts last night of how swift the divegrence was, see last night's post as well.

 30 year Treasury futures 5 min charts showed a high probability pullback, just as seen in TLT's Friday charts in Trade Idea (Swing+) TLT long via TBT Short , but these were still short term, looking for a pullback to add the second half of the TLT long or 30 year treasury long position from Friday's half size position.

 Intraday 30 year Treasuries decline was in line, meaning higher yields attracting the market higher intraday, that is starting to resolve.

The macro trend for 30 year Treasury bonds and thus lower yields pulling the market lower ,  just as predictable as today's intraday bounce higher if not more so...

 60 min leading positive 30 year Treasury futures, yields move opposite Treasuries (down is implied) and attract equity prices to the  like a magnet (down is implied).

TLT (20+ year Treasury Bond Fund)'s 60 min chart confirms the above.

 SPY 30 min from in line or price confirmation to deeply leading negative below anything on the chart, a macro trend.

The yellow arrow is a possible head fake move.

 QQQ 60 min macro trend leading negative larger and more acute than the August cycle leading to October lows.

IWM 2 hour macro leading lower and lower with clear range tops .

 Macro Sentiment trend since July with "-" negative and "=" in line. Note how deep the dislocation of pro sentiment is compared with the August cycle (September) highs leading to October lows.

 HYG with just about  the same timeframe showing the leading "+" positive HYG divegrence at the August lows/base for the August cycle, the leading negative at the head fake high in September at the August cycle's stage 3 top and chimney head fake, the in line at October lows, as I showed Friday there was accumulation at the October lows in this post...The Plunge Protection and Market Correction Team

And the intense leading negative , not only of the entire trend, but last week specifically...

 Last week's HYG deterioration in addition to the trend above, specifically zoomed in to context.

Yellow is a possible head fake high.

High Yield Credit's trend since the August cycle's stage 3 highs in September with a negative "-" at the head fake high and "=" or in line at the October lows, I also showed the positive divegrence at the October lows in Friday's post, The Plunge Protection and Market Correction Team.

The dislocation is massive, but today's negative move is even worse, like HYG last week.

And near term for the rest of the week as part of the "Week Ahead" forecast, the SPX/RUT indicator...

The Indicator in red vs the SPy shows price is not confirmed, it should make a move well below the SPY's white trend line.

This is part of the reason last night I thought the Nikkei 225 move was too parabolic and would see a dead cat bounce that would move in to today's market which fits with Friday's "Week Ahead" divergences for early this week which just happened to be correct even after such a massive break last night.

The forecast from last night was for a dead cat bounce and a return to the macro trends.

As I have been saying, the market has no support here and it like walking on an eggshell, I THINK THE NKD MOVE LAST NIGHT WAS THE FIRST CRACK IN THAT.

I'm checking the specific assets I was looking at Friday that led me to believe we see some strength today.