There are several things that make me wonder if we haven't already seen the head fake high, take the Russell 2000 for instance as small caps get pounded for a 3rd day and in to the close no less.
Interestingly the SPX/ES and Dow closed right at their futures close on Friday, for ES the close Friday was $2038.50 and today $2037.75, a difference of less than a point, the Dow the same.
The R2K custom indicator buy/sell signal with a buy at the October lows and a huge sell now.
The SPX for that matter isn't performing much better, locked in a 3 point closing range the last 6 days.
Meanwhile as pointed out already in today's post and all last week, the VIX keeps moving higher, of course we saw the accumulation in VIX futures even before the bid under the VIX broke it's correlation with the SPX, also seen here, If This Doesn't Tell You SOMETHING IS VERY WRONG...
High Yield Credit is SCREAMING like I've never seen it before.
As for breadth, the R2K A/D line is showing weakness...as is the NASDAQ Composite.
One indicator that I remember well because it only moved at the very top was the Cumulative Volume Index, here it is now...
There was no Dominant Price Volume Relationship again today, but not surprising given the SPX has had a 3 point closing range ($2038 to $2041) for the last 6 days, that makes for a large doji star. Otherwise there was barely any movement in the SPX and Dow -30, the only two averages to close green up +0.07%!!!
Only 3 of the 9 S&P sectors closed green with defensive Utilities leading at + 1.31% and Energy lagging at -0.52%.
Of the 238 Morningstar Industry/Sub-Industry groups, only 76 of 238 closed green.
If this doesn't look like a nasty top, I don't know what does. Unfortunately people like Carl Icahn are calling it exactly that,
"One Day You'll See A Break Like A Few Weeks Ago But The Market Won't Come Back"
I'd prefer there weren't people calling a top as I have stated before, but this is just getting too ugly.
Luckily it seems retail sentiment is increasing in bullishness, that I like and hope continues. You hopefully saw the FAZ post today, it's an excellent proxy for the market so I'll be watching assets like that closely, but I think at this point, Icahn is right, this is most likely to end up as a gap down that takes out several weeks of longs on an unassuming morning.
I'll be checking futures again tonight because I think last night was insightful, it seems last night's Nikkei move was the crack in tis weak market structure, how fast and hard it comes down I think is already foretold by leading indicators, credit, VIX, etc.
If you're watching one thing tonight, for me it would be the USD/JPY or the relative performance between the Nikkei 225 and USD/JPY. If I see anything above and beyond like last night, i'll have it up for you.
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