Leading Indicators

Usually by this time in the day Leading Indicators are giving a pretty good read. Taking a look there's several interesting charts both longer term and shorter term and one leading indicator in particular that I'm keeping a close eye on.

 Again today VXX Short term VIX futures are outperforming their correlation with the SPX, since the two typically move almost mirror opposite I've inverted SPX prices in green so you can better see the extent of the correlation intraday.

While there certainly could be some hedging and nervousness ahead of tomorrow's ECB decision (with some strange circumstances surrounding it like yesterday's near mutiny against Draghi before the decision, criticizing his leadership), this type of correlation or break of the normal correlation has been on a lot more than off recently, I'd almost say a trend.

 Spot VIX is seeing the same kind of strength vs the normal correlation as well vs the SPX (again prices for SPX intraday are inverted).

 Normally VIX would be right around the arrow.

HYG which has also been a fantastic leading indicator both before moves to the upside and downside, is leading the SPX correlation lower (SPX prices are not inverted here). This is the intraday view...

This is a slightly longer view and it gets worse as we go out even longer.

HY Credit intraday is also dislocated vs the SPX as both are risk assets.

And here's a longer trend since the September decline and October lows with HY Credit divergences vs the SPX both at the start of the September decline and a much sharper dislocation now.

 The asset I use for pro sentiment has also been in decline, this moved up with prices in the earlier stages of mark up off the October lows, but since...

This is the broader view as it has dislocated and I use a second asset for confirmation of this one as they have tended to work together well.

 Again intraday and recent dislocation from the SPX... and the longer term chart looks nearly identical to the one above.

Our newer SPX/RUT Ratio has been negatively dislocated from the SPX as well and on a longer timeframe...

This was used to call the October lows and it called the July decline, the August lows, the head fake move from the August cycle that led to stage 4 decline of that cycle and in to the October lows.

This is dislocated negatively in several ways, from the October lows it has not made a higher high confirming the SPX move and on a longer term basis if you compare at points "A" and "B" or even at point "C" and now, it looks to be a much more serious negative dislocation.

 The 1 asset in line intraday is 30 year yields...

 30 year yields vs the SPX intraday and as I've posted before...

30 year yields vs the SPX on a longer term basis calling the August cycle's turn to stage 4 decline, several SPX bounce attempts that the 30 year Yields failed to confirm with the SPX moving lower on non confirmation and a much larger dislocation now than at the August cycle's decline to stage 4 that got everyone so bearish in early through mid October.

I'll be keeping a close eye on the Treasury futures as well as TLT and may post some updates as that's the only leading indicator of ours that is in line today so any divergences in 30 year treasury futures or TLT are important here intraday.