Wednesday, November 5, 2014

SQQQ & SRTY Update

These are both positions I have personally (long) and I continue to like them quite bit. This isn't to disparage other assets, I just wanted to get an update out on these two and I'll try to get more out.

One thing I expected was a more parabolic reversal since most of the averages made a parabolic move off a sharp "V" base, with the R2K/IWM having a larger base than the others.

However as we have seen numerous times in the past, the reversal process from a top turning down has always been about 2x or bigger than the reversal process at bottoms which tend to be much more narrow relatively speaking. However, this is still a pretty tight reversal process.

For whatever reason, if you look at enough of these, you find there's some symmetry between the stages like the stage 1 base and stage 3 top, there tends to be some proportionality. So even with a very sharp "V" bottom, the reversal process here at what I believe is a QQQ top, is still within that proportionality of about 2x+ longer at the top reversal than the stage 1 base.

As for SQQQ and SRTY updated charts...

 SQQQ 30 with the reversal process in yellow and the sharp top to the left, that was the mid October market lows.

SQQQ 10

SQQQ 3 as we have the longer strategic timeframes in place we start looking to the shorter tactical timeframes for timing.

 SQQQ 2 m

Other than multiple timeframe analysis, I always try to confirm via multiple assets, that would include QQQ, QID, QLD, TQQQ, SQQQ , so as you can imagine with 3 or 4 charts for each, I could have you busy looking at charts all day, but I did want to show some multiple asset confirmation because I think this is an important concept in building high probability analysis

TQQQ 3x long QQQ, the opposite of SQQQ above.

 This is a larger picture view, 60 min chart going back to the August cycle and top as well as its stage 4 decline to a new lower low and the base and most recent rally with the 60 min chart almost never getting off the ground as the positive divegrence never made it this far, leaving TQQQ with a deep leading negative 3C divergence.

 The 10 min with the October low base, you can see the accumulation/divergence made it to the 10 min chart, as well as the current signal. The longer the timeframe, the stronger the underlying flow , trend and probabilities.

 TQQQ 2 min trend from the October lows. That looks like pretty decent confirmation for SQQQ.

SRTY 3x short IWM/Russell 2000
 60 min, interestingly unlike TQQQ above, the 60 min positive 3C divegrence DID make it this far in SRTY.

30 min from the October SRTY highs, market pivot lows and current leading 3C divegrence

 10 min chart with a negative divegrence, downside confirmation and a leading positive divegrence, pretty much what I'd call a nearly complete cycle.

 Short term 2 min and in yellow about the area I'd call a reversal process, actually probably a bit further back.

And as far as multiple asset/timeframe confirmation, this is URTY, the opposite of SRTY
 This is a long term 4 hour chart, it looks very similar to the IWM's long term chart (remember this is essentially a 3x long IWM ETF).

 URTY 30 min leading negative 3C divegrence

URTY 10 min leading negative below the October lows.

I'll try to get some more assets up as I keep watch over the broader market as well and some specific assets.

No comments: