Tuesday, December 2, 2014

Leading Indicators

From a quick look at Leading Indicators, they are for the most part, NOT buying this move. The only ones that are we already knew about, that would be yields as TLT / Bonds would be knocked lower for the SPY Arbitrage lever, or HYG's support.

I get a feeling that there's an overall feeling of not only not buying this bounce and likely selling/shorting it, but that there's almost a smooth transition from when the bounce ends to a clean move down almost as if they don't need this bounce for anything, THEY ARE ALREADY IN POSITION.

 VXX vs SPX has behaved pretty normal today overall, VIX not much different.

My custom SPX/RUT ratio shows a leading negative dislocation for the broader area

And specfically for the bounce, although intraday it was supportive at first.

And on a macro trend very negative, but note how VERY positive it was at the October lows, one of the many signals telling us a strong move up was coming.

 HYG which had 3C support yesterday and thus morning and is now fading had PERFECT market support seen this morning until just after the European close, then HYG dislocated and seems to be selling of as it's job of supporting the market for the bounce is over and this mirrors in non-manipulative/lever HY Credit...

High Yield Credit which is not manipulated like HYG as a market support lever is just selling off through all of this .

Here it is selling off going in to last week's ugliness and yesterday's sharp 30 min decline causing an oversold condition in a mere 30 minutes.

And the longer trend showing divergences at each top/pivot, they are nothing compared t the divegrence now.

 Pro sentiment is selling off in to today, supportive yesterday.

And here's our second pro sentiment, clearly selling off not only before yesterday's plunge, but solidly through today, so it seems this bounce doesn't have much more time, but I still don't see it as over yet.

The indications above show it clearly as a bounce and nothing more.

 Yields lead the market lower to yesterday's sell off, but they are supportive today which is a function of the treasury /TLT levers being used so this is to be expected, but for now it is supportive intraday.

And the 30 year leading the market lower and now inline, again this has to be expected when the TLT lever/SPY arb is being used.

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