It looks like our bounce is getting some wind under its wings, intraday TICK has improved and the levers are very obvious, apparently just intraday accumulation of the averages wasn't going to be enough.
USD/JPY should be one...
USD/JPY as a lever has already broken, we saw that over 2 weeks ago and especially last week. However I'm sure it's still useful intraday even though there's no divergence here.
Do note the new highs in USD/JPY overnight as Moody's downgraded Japan and the IMMEDIATE and strong distribution in to that high. The reason I suspect USD/JPY or maybe one of the other Yen carry pairs is the following...
Well , perhaps I should have emphasized "Maybe one of the other Yen carry pairs" more. The $USDX 5 min has been negative, you can see the divegrence that took it lower on this 5 min chart so it doesn't look like it will be of much help, but it's a pair and it takes two to tango, that leaves the Yen.
Intraday it has a negative divegrence which should send it lower sending JPY pairs higher, thus one of the levers.
The second and third are one in the same, you can probably guess. Looking at VIX futures I saw it right away...
Intraday VIX futures with a negative divegrence which sends VXX lower.
VXX lower with TLT lower and HYG higher= what?
SPY Arbitrage, a useful lever and one that has been in and out all day. With VXX moving lower it will lock in that lever ad help out intraday.
Even though HYG is leading lower and destroyed, it can still play intraday and probably needs to with that gap. This is an intraday 2 min positive in HYG which can be used alone, but I suspect they need to call in al the troops after this morning's crack.
And the last ingredient is TLT and with it, yields. TLT in line with a recent negative divergence sending it lower today is a complete SPY Arb activation.
I'm just showing you the mechanics of this move, not saying I think it's anything more or less than what has already been posted.
However TLT won't be pulling back for long, not with a beautiful , huge rounding bottom like that and a 60 min leading positive divegrence, so TLT may be an interesting pullback long once this is finished, I prefer shorting TBT to get an effective 2x long TLT position.
Those are the levers.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
-
Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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