GLD Update

In my last Gold post, GLD Update, I believed despite the strong confirmation in gold futures, it would come back down and I wasn't making any decisions on the GLD short that's open at a 2.25% loss.

"60 min YG with another reason I liked GLD short which was working out pretty well until this truly parabolic move higher and you know what I think of parabolic moves... thy tend to end in the same fashion as they started, just the opposite direction."

First it was the Swiss referendum, now it's re-hypothecation and shortages in gold swaps, I really have no idea and I don't think my information is going to be better than Goldman's so I'm just interested in which way the money is flowing. I didn't panic on today's Gold move because price is deceptive and there's often much more to the story, but few will get there as their emotions knee jerk them from one position to another.

I do wish there were better confirmation between gold mini futures and GLD, but the position is in GLD, not gold minis (YG). With that in mind, here's what I'm looking at and thinking about as far as the GLD short position goes.

*This analysis is outside our longer term charts that suggest there's up to a year long base that has formed in Gold and gold miners, which is a long term secular position, I'm not dealing with that right now (I'd expect that to be more of an issue as the F_E_D raises rates and inflation starts to heat up).

 Daily GLD chart with a lengthening upper candlestick wick showing higher prices are being rejected, but not only that, look at the area GLD has passed today, right where there's a resistance area full of limit buys and stops, an easy target. We'll see what the daily closing candle and volume look like which will tell us a lot, but I suspect GLD is going to come down soon so I'm not taking any drastic steps with the GLD short position.

 GLD 30 min with two negative/distribution areas and one of the reasons the GLD short was opened. Note today is not seeing confirmation, although that's a tall order for a 1-day move on a 30 min chart, but it can be done,

 More to the point, the 15 min chart is not confirming and in fact is showing a negative divegrence which is more realistic as far as confirmation, this makes me wonder if today's move in gold is real or a head fake and I'm thinking more and more it's some kind of shakeout/head fake move.

 A 5 min chart should have NO problem confirming on a move like today, it's not only not confirming, but also clearly negative implying distribution of the move higher in GLD today.

The same is true intraday on the 1 min chart.

For now the charts are telling me to expect GLD to come down which has started already, I'll have to see how it acts if that happens and then we'll have a better idea of what's going on here.