Market Update

The market is still building a toe hold for a bounce, I suspect a gap fill as the market has been relentless in filling gaps over the last 5 years, although where the SPX sits right now as well as the NDX and others, a failure to fill that gap would be devastating and suggest a much nastier, sharper decline than I already think we'll see (this morning was just a tremor)...

I'll update quickly with Index futures as it's a bit faster for me.

Intraday as I mentioned, they are working on a basing area or reversal process, it doesn't matter how short a reversal may be, it needs a reversal process rather than a "V" shaped event as we rarely see those and after such a deep blow to breadth (as seen in intraday TICK), building a toe hold takes a bit more time than just a quick reversal to the upside for a gap filling bounce.

 ES 1 min intraday still working on a reversal process area for a gap fill/bounce. Even this morning's move was too parabolic, too early. Moves like that , while in this case very probably establishing the first fault line crack in the market, don't usually keep moving all day in the same direction, Wall St. will want to shake off as many traders as possible and from what I'm reading, retail sentiment is still very bullish which is very useful to smart money to continue to sell in to and build bigger bull traps.

NQ/NASDAQ futures 1 min intraday aren't spectacular, but like I said, they are building a toe-hold or at least a consolidation.

Remember, as volatility increases, it's easier for these short term, weaker divergences to be run over, all that is needed is the AAPL panic effect like when all the hedgies found out Dan Loeb sold his AAPL and AAPL fell -45% in 8 months from there.

 And TF/Russell 2000 intraday building a positive divegrence at the consolidation area.

 The problem still remains that there's a roof on any bounce or gap fill and that's what I was posting last night in, Sunday Night Index Futures
 

There's a full house across the timeframes even if the very short ones are reflecting a parabolic , short term flame out (oversold condition), as fear rises these oversold conditions will be harder and harder to create.

At the 7 min chart ES shows the negative divegrence in to last week which was forecasting this morning's break, the whole week was nothing more than a Black Friday sentiment exercise...Keep the market from adding to any negative sentiment which is already clearly out there before Black Friday and apparently reflected in this weekend's sales figures as well.

 NQ 30 min just like last night...actually even deeper so any bounce will simply make this divegrence worse.

ES 60 min, etc...

The macro themes are intact, the "Full House" multiple timeframe/multiple asset confirmation is in effect. We're looking at a consolidation and likely bounce still trying to build a toe-hold.

In my opinion this is to be sold in to so long as the market can get a bounce/gap fill off the ground or shorted in to.

Nothing we didn't expect earlier this morning thus far.