I wanted more time to see how a few charts would pan out before coming to any thesis, but after watching tonight's futures actions, I feel pretty confident that the bounce that seemed destined for today will occur tomorrow, perhaps even through the overnight session and in to tomorrow.
Again, nothing has changed about the bounce's importance, it's best used in my view without any hesitation or doubt to sell or sell short in to as the intermediate and long term/macro themes are defiantly bearish, thus it's an opportunity, I'd use it as such.
I'll update the charts in the morning, but this seems to be the clear near term direction, which takes nothing away from the damage and selling today which was quite intense, today was not a set up for a larger bounce, it was a failure of a bounce set up too weak to hold on its own so I fully expect levers to be employed tomorrow including USD/JPY, maybe a VIX slam, perhaps HYG support, but the big picture is still to the downside. This is in my view nothing more than distraction, the market doing what it can to keep traders on edge and in losing positions, shaken out or lulled in to false security.
Price is deceptive, but in this case, we have a pretty good idea of what it's going to do, use it to your advantage.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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