From what I see, there are still short term divergences including the negative $USDX, positive Yen, positive USD/JPY, and some positive market averages and Index futures.
There are some very strong, long term charts that made extraordinary moves lower (3c charts) today showing VERY strong weakness in the market.
I'm not sure what to think of these yet. Perhaps an overnight bounce or perhaps it's an anomaly, but there seem to be enough that I'd guess there's something to it that has to do with a bounce.
The 7 min and longer term Index futures saw price move in their direction, they are the highest probability and they still look fantastic.
In other words, if there were to be a short term bounce, even a very strong looking one, I'd have almost no doubt that it would resolve to the downside, but again it would be extremely useful in entering short positions if you still need some. Otherwise, although I expect the market to shake the tree every which way to confuse the most number of traders, in my view there's no escaping the fact this market is headed SIGNIFICANTLY lower and I don't say that lightly or with any sense of hyperbole.
As these signals in the very short term are strangely positive in a number of assets and negative in others that confirm such as 1 min VIX futures, I have decided to wait for a little while and see what develops in futures before the daily wrap.
In case I haven't been clear, I suspect there's a high probability of upside volatility, whether overnight or perhaps in the next day or so, BUT IN NO WAY WOULD I CLOSE ANY OF MY SHORTS AS I HAVE NO DOUBT (IN MY MIND) THAT THIS MARKET IS HEADED SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER AND THAT'S WHERE HUGE OPPORTUNITY, MORE THAN THE OCTOBER UPSIDE RALLY, LAYS.
So I'll try to figure out what these short term positives or at least lack of confirmation as they aren't the typical positives that are clear, they just haven';'t confirmed downside, whereas some very long and much stronger charts have made much stronger moves to confirm downside moves today, to an extent that is surprising so once again, any upside price movement in my view should be sold/sold short and positions should largely be in line with a significant move lower in the broad market and most equity assets.
I'll update as soon as I feel I have a useful insight on the short term, I think I've made abundantly clear my insight and thoughts about the bigger picture and where the opportunity is.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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