Wednesday, December 10, 2014

This Looks like the real deal

As I often warn, with small divergences in an increasingly volatile market, they are more commonly run over.

I don't have the confirmation through all timeframes, but the ones that are, are some VERY significant ones. The USD/JPY has fallen wand taken ES with it, Yields are crumbling, TICK is looking horrible on a sustained basis and as for the averages...
 SPY 1 min is in line with the decline, I see NO short term accumulation of the lows, this looks like the real deal and it should given everything we know about the market.

The SPY 3 min which shows the smaller positive divegrence of today, run over.

It seems the theory that yesterday's move was just a move to get market makers and specialists out of losing inventory is probably exactly what happened.

 SPY 5 min is moving down, not quite at confirmation, but there are heavier or stronger signals showing stronger distribution.

This 30 min chart has been where the probabilities have been the whole time and as I said Monday morning, we are likely to be breaking the Broadening top as we already had a head fake move, my expectation would be a move toward the bottom of the top's trendlines.


 QQQ 1 min is VERY close to confirmation

The 5 min chart is right at confirmation

More impressively, the 15 min chart which would be showing LARGE transactions is deeply leading negative, I suspect this is very strong selling that is the real deal, at least as far as we can see.

And the QQQ hourly chart, where the highest probability resolution lay, shows a strong intraday move today which is uncommon except in very heavy selling.

IWM 1 min is about in line and leading as expected.

The 3 min chart is leading negative

 Again another sharp move lower intraday by a 15 minute chart, again, a very strong and unusual move.

TICK confirms as breadth has been consistently below -1000 to -1600


And my custom TICK//SPY indicator seems to confirm

I don't chase assets so right now is about managing positions already entered, I have been fully short and ready for this and I believe many of you have.

So for now, I'll be looking for additional opportunities, but this is largely management of positions we already set up as they are working for us and watching for anything that may pop out as a surprise, but this does LOOK LIKE THE REAL DEAL.

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