I'm watching both AAPL puts that were added to yesterday after taking half off the table last week, Adding AAPL March 20 $130 Puts Back as well as the March 20th QQQ $108 puts, both at a nice gain, Q's near 40+% and AAPL just in the low teens.
I'm watching for a turn to the downside, maybe toward $106 in the Q's and $124.80 in AAPL, around those areas, depending on what I see, I'll likely close both positions as the March 20th expiration is coming up and so is the F_O_M_C meeting which is a wild card, one comma out of place can change the market's entire perception, while it may not change reality and we know prices are all based on perception, less and less on reality.
My options tactics have been over the last several years to get in and get out as fast as possible, before the first significant correction on momentum, exactly when everyone else is buying puts or holding them. The last thing I want to get stuck with is a consolidation, this isn't even about the position going against me, but the time decay in a consolidation.
I'm not saying this is the best way to make the largest gain in options, but it has been one of the most consistent ways to keep gains coming in rather than "Letting it ride".
This isn't about any forecast changes or anything else. You may recall from yesterday's Adding AAPL March 20 $130 Puts Back post that I was agonizing over whether to go with the further out April monthly expiration or add back the March monthly, I went with the March monthly.
However, I'd be looking to re-establish either or both positions, just with a new strike at the right time and a further out expiration.
Just a head's up.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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