Tuesday, March 10, 2015

Market Update

I believe this morning's AAPL/QQQ Put closure was well played and good timing to re-enter the positions on a near term (tomorrow) bounce, but not a bounce that would be of any concern to me on the upside, just the normal short term oversold jiggles that we were talking about last night.

I looked at Leading Indicators which I'l post and they look supportive or at least not blocking the possibility of a bounce.

The great thing about this scenario is it brings the trade to us if it bounces at a better entry and much lower risk and if it doesn't bounce, then our core shorts just continue to work so it's either an additional opportunity or no harm done and we keep moving in the right direction.

There are a few divergences that may be enough to get the job done,  they are far from a divergence that I'd point out and call as a short term piggy back trade (bounce), there's just too much negative stuff in the mix to make them worth any kind of risk or probability, but looking at it from a "If it comes to us great, if it doesn't no harm no foul" perspective, it works perfectly.

I'll show you the leading indicators after the close, they aren't screaming bounce, but they are supportive enough, we have the gap in place, it all looks decent for a new add to or new opening position move, I'm specifically looking to add QQQ puts and/or AAPL puts on a discount/bounce.

I'd say that's our near term highest probability on a very short term basis, but I would not trade against the stage 4 decline, there's too much on the downside probabilities to make that risk worthwhile.

I'll have those charts out in a few minutes.

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