Status Report

I'm going to try to keep you up to date with the 3 things I'm looking for in order to best time entries and a downside reversal from this week's expected triangle based or volatility pinched head fake breakout as was represented by AAPL as a market proxy last week for this week's forecast.

1) Looking for the 3C charts of the averages to deteriorate out to 15 mins. where they were strongest and leading last week except for the IWM. So far this has been the easiest, it shows the process of distribution that we expected before hand and are seeing play out before our eyes.

2) The failure of the 7-15 min charts which were also positive last week and have been in line or confirming this week until yesterday the higher probability 30 and 60 minute charts went negative, now the 7-15 min charts essentially become "timing" charts when they turn. These can turn fast and as already seen, since yesterday when everything was still in line the first moves of these charts turning has begun as shown this morning for the NASDAQ futures in the 5 and 7 min timeframes as they have begun the process, I suspect the other Index futures won't be far behind and the 5 and 7 min charts will quickly migrate to the 10 and 15 min charts giving us a full house as the 30 and 60 min charts are already negative as of yesterday and represent the highest probability resolution for the timing charts in the 7-15 minute range.

3) Leading Indicators giving clear divergent signals, this has already begun in some as posted yesterday.

This does not mean this is the highest probability timing area to enter any positions, but it means we are moving closer to that reality as expected when the forecast was made last week.

Unfortunately, as of yet, we have not seen the kind of volatility squeeze directional breakout expected except on Monday, since we have been ranging, for example...

AAPL's triangle reaching the volatility squeezed apex which is usually the promise of a directional/volatile move, the upside move expected this week, but has only moved up Monday at the white arrow and ranged within Monday's range since. I still think we'll get that upside move, otherwise this is really not a very useful set up for us, but just biding time waiting on core shorts and other assorted long trades to start moving again.

I'll try to bring you the Index futures as they develop, so far the 5 min and 7 min NASDAQ futures have started going negative just a day after the 30 and 60 min charts suggested that was the highest probability outcome, something we already expected last week before we even saw the move higher on Monday. Also increasing volatility is important to us whether it is up, down or sideways (yes sideways, as long as the daily range or ATR increases in volatility).

As for the SPY charts...

 SPY intraday 1 min was in line with the downside this morning and went positive around the same time the IWM saw an increase in volume on a bullish candlestick,  this is part of volume analysis, a flameout, that you can apply to any timeframe.

At present, the SPY intraday is slightly leading.

SPY 2 min since last Thursday's bounce/triangle breakout forecast, I hope you can see now why I said I wouldn't play this on the long side, there's simply too much risk and not enough objective evidence to point to commensurate reward. Thus we be patient and let the trade come to use rather than be mired in this bog of recent price action (last couple of days).

 SPY 3 min is leading negative which is the dominant signal, but there is a smaller relative positive within it, this would tell us a bounce from here is probable, but it's failure is even more probable although the second probability depends on the first.

 The deterioration quickly seen as early as Monday which was the only day we've seen a true upside move, since it has gotten worse as the market essentially ranges in what could otherwise be described as a VWAP-like distribution zone.

I thought by Tuesday (at the rate of deterioration on Monday), that we'd be seeing negative 10 min charts and as you can see, they clearly are.

From there, it's a short skip over to the 15 min charts that fueled this move.

 Although the SPY 15 min is still capable, still alive and can still push the market higher, its deterioration has begun right on schedule as far as this week's forecasts for the migration or strengthening of the divergences/distribution.

What is strange and we have seen this the last several bounce attempts is that distribution is taking place much earlier and not allowing bounces to get very far, it's almost as if there's a panic to sell in to anything resembling higher prices which is different than the not too distant past in which we could count on several days or more of mark up before distribution signals got very heavy.

The damage to the QQQ 15 min

The already damaged IWM 15 min

And more severe damage to the DIA 15 min, all of which were leading positive last week except the IWM.