Thursday, April 9, 2015

Market Update-IWM intraday upside reversal

I've been spending this morning looking at trade ideas, jotting down price alert levels and setting them as I look at the SPY and see a very, very ugly set of charts.

However, shortly after Wholesale Trade came in at a bloated level, taken with Factory orders which has never been a good sign across an entire quarter and often has been a precursor to recession, the worst looking of the averages, the Russell 2000/IWM fell in line with yesterday's ugly Dominant Price / Volume relationship and has taken a turn for the worse. This does not "seem" to be directly correlated with the wholesale trade data as it happened after, but the increase in volume was notable, even if it may lead to a bounce, I do feel a sense of urgency to get whatever positions that may look good ready for alerts ASAP.

Remember the IWM has had the worst looking charts as even its 15 min chart that all other averages showed as positive, was not only not positive, not even in line, but negative as I've posted numerous times this week.

IWM intraday falls about 30 minutes after the Wholesale data came out, note the volume increase as the IWM has now taken out all of this week's gains on an intraday basis. Also be on the lookout for a large volume spike and a bullish candle on one of the intraday timeframes like 5, 10 or 15 min for example, I suspect it's too early in the day for the IWM to hold these losses without so much as an intraday bounce.

 IWM 15 min compared to SPY 15 min below...

SPY 15 min looks much, much better, but remember we have been anticipating the 15 min chart to see deterioration and that's the line in the sane, that deterioration has become clear today as you can easily see.

 This is the kind of intraday candle and volume I was talking about that just occurred on the 15 min chart, it's essentially an intraday flameout and we should get a bounce from this level.

The intraday 1 min IWM chart supports that view.

However, it should be plain to see that we are getting close to the end of this week's forecast, hopefully we'll get some higher prices before it ends.


No comments: