Talk of a Greek Exit Adding Pressure

The market was already under the selling pressure from Friday's early week/Monday forecast of initial strength followed by weakness as you'll see in most indications/leading indications below. The 1 p.m. Greek news just exacerbated the situation, still I'm not quite sure we are at the pivot here, although it probably is starting to feel like it based on price action, remember there's almost always a reversal process and Greece's threat was an exit if they don't get something by the end of April, not specifically an exit today, so the market is panicked a bit and discounting that and you have to keep that in mind.

 Leading Indicators like spot VIX shown above vs inverted SPX (green) show outperformance in the bid for protection as soon as the open, so this was well in play before Greece this afternoon.

Yields were already collapsing intraday to pull the market lower intraday this morning.

And the recent overall gibber picture has lost momentum and is starting to lead negative

As are commodities both intraday, again almost right off the open well before the Greek exit news and...

 On a broader April 2nd swing basis.



However our custom SPX:RUT ratio which has been very effective near term and larger picture went positive suggesting this afternoon's decline would stabilize a bit which is nearly exactly what I'd imagine for a reversal point, maybe something like a couple of bearish starts, Dojis, etc.

The intraday 1 min IWM is also showing some intraday positive signals

As is the QQQ which went negative earlier today.

However don't doubt the damage done as we can see as soon as this QQQ 3 min intraday chart today.

This is the kind of behavior I'd expect and feel comfortable with as far as this week's pivot/turn in the market forecast or at least the topping of this move, I want to account for the reversal process which this may be actually forming now as upside momentum fades on daily charts.

 SPY 2 min also shows early morning damage as expected and prices moving lower well before 1 pm (Greece) and a relative positive intraday, some sideways, maybe bounce intraday to form the reversal process/congestion area of the top of a move (like reversal candlesticks on daily chart).

Intraday NYSE TICK is also showing the same after being in a downtrend all day, it is breaking above the downtrend now.

Again, patience here is the hardest part, but we usually have very clear signals. Overall I believe we are about in the right area.