Quick Market Update

If you saw the last market update which specifically referred to the approx. 2-days in to this week before we are at a downside pivot and more importantly right now, the early Monday forecast for early morning strength followed by later weakness as only 1 min charts were positive and 2 and 3 min intraday as of the close were negative suggesting early strength would fade as we have seen.

Well we have pretty darn strong signals for both forecasts, the ending of last week's triangle breakout which was never never expected to be anything more than a volatility based head fake move or failed breakout right down to today's morning strength followed by weakness, the issue I'm seeing around quite a few charts is it's looking more like the scenario I suggested this morning that the transformation from early Monday strength to weakness is actually connected to the ending of last week's forecast breakout cycle based on the triangles.

I have more to look at and I can't possibly get all of the charts that I'm seeing out, but I think we are getting very close to the end of this move and turn to the downside.

TICK hasn't been very attractive today, the averages' charts are deteriorating even more, for instance...

 SPY 5 min since the April 2nd triangle breakout forecast is clearly picking up steam on its leading negative divegrence and especially today.

 The SPY 3 min chart's trend which is much more detailed showing the accumulation area which was part of what the breakout forecast was based on shows a clear trend of distribution through almost anything that resembled higher prices.

And while the SPY 15 min is the last real hold out as most of the other indications I'm looking for are either there, or well on their way to getting there, this leading negative on the 10 min today alone is likely to damage that 15 min chart in SPY, all of the other averages have already seen there's broken.

VIX short term futures (3 min) which move opposite the market and therefore are offering confirmation of what we see in the averages are seeing the kind of signals I say to look for with 3C, the kind that jump off the chart. This doesn't mean this is the ideal area or timing for a VXX/UVXY long, although it's probably not far off and this is where your nerve is really tested, at least mine are.

VXX 5 min intraday is leading significantly as well, which makes a good case for why we haven't entered too many if any new short/downside pivot market positions, they weren't giving these signals that jump off the chart which we are already seeing this early after today's intraday forecast for early market strength turned south.

 The 15 min Index futures charts which have been perfectly in line and therefore as one of the reasons I called for a bounce/triangle breakout move, I wanted to see them turn south as well as is obviously happening, so I think we are very much on the right track with the forecast.

Most importantly are the larger probabilities such as this SPX (ES) e-mini futures 60 min chart, as of calling for the triangle breakout on April 2nd, this is what I expected to see, distribution in to price gains and it is very clear, very strong.


I think we are right on track with Friday's forecast for something like a couple of days before we are at a downside pivot, I'll try to confirm as much as I can in timing, but I also need to confirm some of the individual watchlist asset/trade ideas.

Just to give you a progress report, I'm very happy with what we've forecasted , seen and are seeing now.