The big news over the weekend (yesterday) was a shockingly low print for Chinese trade data, both Exports and Imports missed consensus, but exports which were expected to come in at + *% actually printed at -14.6%, the Chinese "soft landing" is quickly losing credibility. However bad news is good news which sent the Shanghai Composite up +2.17% and the blazing Hang Seng up +2.53% while the Nikkei pulled back -.25%. The Trade data weakness obviously prompting speculation of Chinese QE and sending those markets higher while European markets are mixed at best.
There were also some F_E_D comments over the weekend with Kockerlakota (non-voting dove) saying that rate hikes should be put off until the second half of 2016 and Williams who is a voting dove saying a gradual/early approach is preferable to an aggressive late approach which is much more in line with the general theme coming from the F_E_D.
This week will see a bevy of F_E_D speakers including Mester, Kocherlakota, Fischer, Lacker, Lockhart, Rosengren and the always market moving Bullard who speaks on Wednesday which is about where I suspected the market would make a pivot (forecasting about 2 more days of triangle breakout attempts before a turn according to where our 3 measures were Friday) ...just out of interest.
The $USD saw more overnight strength , but that may be starting to be nipped in the bud as an advisor for Japan's PM, Abe, came out and said the USD/JPPY is appropriate at the $1.05 level
Crude futures have moved up a bit as we were expecting late last week for a slight bounce giving some second chance looks at a swing short trade in Crude as it looks like it's making a larger base.
Iron ore bounced off record low prices as reports indicated that Australian miner, Atlas Iron suspended operations due to low prices.
We have some important CPI (inflation data) out tomorrow for Germany, the Euro-area and the US which will have an impact on rate hike perceptions. The UK could see the first year on year deflation since the 1960's.
We also have 35 S&P companies reporting (about 14% of the market cap) this week.
There are some interesting developments in our Index futures charts 7-15 minutes which is one of 3 main things I've been watching for a downside pivot in the market off last week's triangle based breakouts. I'll post a futures (Index) update in just a few minutes, but for now I suspect the market will try to make some more upside attempts before rolling over which I expect around the middle of the week.
More t follow...Index Futures.
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