The Week Ahead

If you go back to last Thursday's forecast for the market this week, you'll see that everything we expected has come to pass thus far, last Thursday's week ahead forecast IMPORTANT: AAPL Set-up & Market Movement.

There are 3 things I've been very specific in looking for to tell me when we are at the end of this move and set up in the best possible position we can be for the next pivot move to the downside, but I suspect this is not going to be continued chop and tight ranges.

Volatility overall is one thing I have been looking for to increase, but specifically as I have laid out:

1)  the 15 min charts which are the line in the sand for this move among the averages to fail and do so clearly, not so you have to inspect the chart, but so it jumps off the chart without doubt.

2) The Index futures' 7-15 min charts (7, 10  and 15 min) to go negative as these are the timing aspect, I have kept you up to date on where they stand.

3) Leading Indicators to unambiguously tell us that we are at the turning point.

All of these have moved in the right direction, some so much so that if they were the only criteria, I probably would have called the turn and probably would have done so early.

I'll update you after the close on where we stand, however in the mean time, I believe we are not done with last week's forecasted move which has been slow to make the moves expected and fast to fill in the expectations without completely fulfilling them. I have no doubt of the move's purpose as expected last week as the charts have been exceptionally clear.

In the week ahead, I'll be looking for the final phases of these 3 conditions to be met, but to give you some idea of how things are going beyond the Index futures update you've already seen and largely the divergences in the averages...

 The DIA 1 min intraday chart with April 2nd (last Thursday's "Week Ahead" post, IMPORTANT: AAPL Set-up & Market Movement which was looking for a breakout move to the upside from many triangle-based price patterns or volatility squeezes, but distribution in to those moves.

The DIA 1 min above shows that clear distribution since the moves higher expected for this week starting on the 6th of April, especially today.


 The 2 min IWM with the same April 6th date and the forecasted move to the upside markeed as linked from the actual post above, and distribution this whole week in to the anticipated/forecasted price move.

Watchlist (Short trade set-up) assets like IBB/NASDAQ Biotech Index are doing EXACTLY what was expected for the week thus far...

IBB's accumulation late last week, the overall forecast for a move to the upside on April 2nd (last Thursday) and the distribution signals (5 min) chart expected to be seen.

NFLX is another watchlist asset/candidate for a short set up...

 Since April 2nd's call, NFLX and the broad market have moved according to forecast, they have also showed strong distribution in to the move. However if I changed the rules I set out last week and this week at a whim because of the distribution in to the move, I WOULD HAVE CALLED AN EARLY ENTRY IN NFLX, NOT AT ALL IN LINE WITH THE TRADE SET UP AND THE REASONS FOR BEING PATIENT AND YOU'D HAVE SUB-PAR POSITIONING.

EVEN WITH TODAY'S DISTRIBUTION, UNTIL THE 15 MIN. CHARTS ARE SCREAMING LIKE THIS 5 MIN... WE ARE NOT THERE YET...

NFLX 15 min since the upside call from last week for this week, even though there is a negative divegrence on the 15 min chart, it is not SCREAMING as the 5 min chart above is and this WAS THE CONDITIONS SET OUT FOR LOOKING FOR THE PIVOT/END TO THE MOVE AND NEW TRADE ENTRIES.

SPY 3 min has seen strong distribution since last week's call...

 Migration of the divegrence (strengthening) is present on the 5 min chart and it is screaming, however the 15 min chart was set out as the goal.

15 min SPY is the strongest and clearly not there yet in which case I'd have made a mistake in calling early based on a lack of patience.

 DIA 15 min chart is much closer to being there, but all of them need to be.

The QQQ chart is almost there (15 min), but almost is not the same as THERE.

And the IWM bear flag is showing strong distribution oin a 15 min chart, but I called for all of the averages, Index futures and leading indicators,

Thus far we have been correct in being patient.

IWM 15  without the drawing.

I think we are exceptionally close, close enough for trend trades I'm sure, but for the actual pivot, not quite there. I suspect maybe a day or two to go.