GLD Update

Wednesday and Yesterday signs started building that we'd see a bounce in gold/GLD near term, this is from yesterday's post, GLD Follow Up...

 Yesterday's chart from the GLD Follow Up post and commentary,

"On an intraday 1 min chart 3C has been confirming price's downside action since the decline from Monday's open. As you know from both yesterday and last night's updates, I suspect we see a n intraday or very short term pop slightly higher, which offers a second chance opportunity for the trade at better prices and lower risk. Note today's intraday positive divergence as well as the price trend moving from a clean diagonal downtrend to a flat lateral trend, often seen at areas of accumulation or distribution although this is a very short term bounce I'm looking for which I believe is best used as a short (swing) entry in GLD and miners."

Today GLD has bounced about +1.2% and GDX at +2.80% so far.

This morning's charts look like this...

 This is a closer view of the exact same divergence from yesterday posted above, but now GLD has bounced up to 3C's leading positive divergence as suspected Wednesday and then expected as of yesterday/last night.

Right now the intraday 1 min chart is still perfectly in line with GLFD prices, I'd like to see a clear negative divergence form before entering a GLD swing short or adding to one being as yesterday was a full day's accumulation, thus I'd prefer to have the best timing signals as I may consider this one for a put position as I only really see about a 5% gain in a straight GLD swing short.

 The 2 min chart was also leading positive yesterday and is perfectly in line with price this morning as price has reverted up to the short term accumulation/3C level from yesterday as it ranged laterally which is where we see the most frequent 3C activity, either accumulation or distribution depending on the preceding trend, in this case short term accumulation for such a bounce.

Even though this bounce is being credited to news out of India, obviously someone was either aware of the news coming out or it's simply coincidence, but I don't think that divegrence and today's move higher can possibly be considered coincidence.

The 5 min chart is still overall negative suggesting the swing short is still the dominant trade and a bounce only gives you better positioning at lower risk. Waiting for the 1-2 min charts to turn negative gives us the best probabilities and timing, especially if you plan to consider options as a trade vehicle.

And the 15 min chart that got the entire GLD swing short notion started after some accumulation sending GLD higher, a negative divergence set in suggesting this may be a range and we see a swing lower back to the $110.00 area.

I'll keep an eye on the intraday charts and post when it looks like it's safe for an options (put) trade.