USO Update-Swing Position

I believe the turn I have been looking for in USO as it has been sitting at it's base's upper resistance level for the past several days is finally taking shape. Don't forget to check out recent USO posts, at least yesterday's, USO Update.

I decided not only to keep the initial put position, but to add to it last week, that second put is moving a lot closer to a gain (only single digits away with May monthly expiration for both).

The larger overall picture as I said yesterday is in my view, at least a significant pullback to gather a head of steam and try to break out of the longer term trend base which I believe will lead to a primary trend reversal (up) in oil, I'd like to be long USO at that point so I'm looking either for a pullback that is under accumulation while these swing-trade puts work or the original suspicion of a larger pullback toward the base lows, I don't think we'll know that until we see what the 3C charts look like in to a pullback.

However there was enough damage on the charts sitting right at resistance to make it hard to believe we'd be seeing a breakout THAT WOULD HOLD without further work being done.

This is recent volatility in USO, #1 is just the US open, #2 is the Saudi announcement today that the aerial bombardment campaign in Yemen is coming to a close, it's difficult to say that correlation at #2 is the same as causation considering the volatility any way in USO otherwise.

The ultimate simple chart for crude futures (Brent-I know they are not the same as USO's WTI) are pretty simple.

 /CL Crude futures 30 min positive leading to upside and 30 min negative leading to the expectation of a downside move.

There may be a near term bounce entry for anyone interested in USO short for a swing trade based on the intraday candlestick/volume which looks to have found an intraday support level.

 The intraday surge of volume on a bullish looking candlestick may provide a decent enough bounce that an entry is worthwhile for a swing short.

USO had been sitting at the resistance area of it's 2015 base with strong accumulation through the base, it was unsure whether a head fake move may occur above resistance before a downside move fulfilling the intermediate charts calling for a swing move lower. Note volume in the area and the higher upper candlestick wicks rejecting higher prices intraday on the daily candles.

 The 60 min chart shows good price/3C trend confirmation which is the reason I had not updates it for over a week after March 31st, there was too much confirmation of the trend, nothing that suggested a pivot/edge.

This 60 min chart though has enough of a negative divergence that I can't see a successful breakout of USO at this point without pulling back and doing some work on this chart.

The 30 min chart has the same divergence.

 As does the 15 min chart in a near carbon copy, all suggesting USO would not have been able to hold breakout gains and it would have almost certainly been a head fake/failed breakout.

Agai the 10 min chart is a carbon copy so I think the swing short/put should work over the coming days/week, however there may be a near term chance to get involved on a small intraday bounce on the afternoon volume/candlestick.

Otherwise, for now I'm just leaving the two put positions as they are until the next trade (long) sets up.