AAPL was the example asset of choice for the April 2nd forecast because it best represented at the time the numerous triangles and pinching volatility indicative of a highly directional move and it was just by chance were I was when I decided I had seen enough, enough stocks and market averages were all acting in similar fashion which has been right in line with the 4/2 forecast and subsequent forecasts for each week.
The fact however remains that AAPL didn't make much of a triangle based breakout, it actually didn't start until yesterday after last week's head fake/Crazy Ivan shakeout and momentum producing head fake move.
In looking at several assets that are high on my watchlist, NFLX, Transports, AAPL, they all have a feel of a bit more time and patience, I may have a different opinion as I continue to go through additional charts, but even the $USD from the Futures update just a bit ago doesn't rule out a little additional strength in the $USD before returning to a larger primary downtrend.
For AAPL, here's what we have... I really anticipated that AAPL would move well before this week, but it has at least finally started a move.
This is the rough triangle in AAPL used as a market proxy for the 4/2 post. Friday's move below the apex on volume was a stop run, the first part of a 2-part shakeout on both sides of the apex. Shorts who may have chased price below the price pattern's apex on Friday were squeezed yesterday, once of the reasons head fake moves are used as they don't require actual investment to create motion, especially if it's investment you are trying to take the other side of, but need movement nonetheless.
(yellow arrow was Friday's head fake below the apex-mini bear trap and short squeeze yesterday).
The triangle like a pair of Bollinger Bands is the promise of a highly directional move in the near future, look at the difference in the width of the bands at the orange areas at 1 & 2 and compare to the pinching of the triangle, this is what the general market expectations were based on near term.
The larger multi-day 3C chart for AAPL shows the Dan Loeb / Third Point highs when Dan exited AAPL and caused a hedge fund herd stampeded taking AAPL down -45% in 8 months. I've shown numerous charts that the recovery to new highs in AAPL is not exactly what it seems and have encouraged everyone to look at the MSFT growth story, what happened after they went through a similar experience, declared dividend, share buybacks , etc. The growth story ended.
The 4-day chart shows the 2009 market bottom (white) the general uptrend confirmation in to the 2012 highs and distribution as we were calling for a move lower right as AAPL was the market darling that could do no wrong, then Dan Loeb's S_E_C filing came out without AAPL in the top 5 holdings causing a hedge fund herd stampede out the door leaving AAPL down 45% in 8 months. The bounce to new highs since then is not all it has appeared to be as this chart shows at #2.
And recently on a 4 hour chart in to the triangle area and 2015, there's a clear change in the 3C trend.
Just as the more detailed 2 hour chart shows a similar negative trend in to the triangle which is why I'm anxious to use an upside breakout in AAPL as a potential short set up. As I said when we saw AAPL's signals, you could play it long, but probabilities and letting the trade come to you seemed like a far better position to take, if not a more patient one.
AAPL 60 min "seems" to show initial distribution on a fairly strong chart in to the initial triangle based breakout, although this is very early.
This is also one of the reasons I believe we have a little more time and need not be too overwhelmed or rushed, perhaps the SPX head fake move is still on, probabilities always favor such a move about 80% of the time in any asset and any timeframe, even more for a popular asset and a stronger resistance/support/price pattern that is more easily recognizable and more likely to cause traders to act.
The 15 min chart, like the averages, is showing a negative divergence in to the initial breakout yesterday.
Intraday 1 min (from the other end to se migration) shows a clear trend of distribution in to higher prices.
We have a stronger divergence as it migrated to the next longest timeframe at 2 min with Friday's head fake on positive divergence seen in yellow.
The 3 min trend is also showing migration.
However I would not consider AAPL a short yet, maybe on an equity short basis with a reasonably wide stop considering this hasn't made a primary trend reversal, but for put positions and the like, I prefer the best timing I can find and in looking in several of the assets I've been watching closely they resemble AAPL, close and in many ways getting edgy to take action, but also looks like there's a bit more to go and I think it may have something to do with the SPX head fake probability.
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