Very Early Update

I'm usually not too interested in the A.M. noise, but there are some interesting hints, likely as to who's running the show today , as I said the last few days, I don't see the market's strength or ability to effect a head fake breakout (false/failed breakout) above the very magnetic SPX March resistance trendline without some outside help, USD/JPY may be just the latest in levers that have been called up or maybe it's the one that gets the job done. Either way, as you know, I feel very strongly that any break above resistance will be a head fake move, the concept is at about 80% before a reversal (downside in this case) as I detailed as well as I could last night, therefore it's an interesting opportunity for using price strength to tactically enter strategically weak positions and or sell longs that might have just about overstayed their welcome.

The market doesn't look exceptionally sharp since the cash open (keep in mind many of these are 1 min charts and they take some time to collect)...

 ES 1 min since this morning post European open positive divegrence and a slight negative on the US cash open.

The market averages are confirming intraday so far, but remember these are short term charts and early at that.

SPY 1 min intraday failure of 3C to confirm/negative at the gap up open and in line since like the other averages, yet the TICK Index is very mellow and several of the Leading Indicators providing very near term support to the market are still in place. Yields look to be a bit of a different story.

Early on it was easy to see the USD/JPY was running the show this morning...

 The same divergences as ES/SPX futures at the same places/times.

Although USD/JPY appears to be in line at this capture, this is likely what is causing some early weakness...

 1 min $USDX, the first part of the FX pair (futures) also positive at the same area this morning and negative around the cash open.

Confirming is the Yen 1 min futures, the second half of the pair.

 Yen negative at the same time everything else was positive this morning, remember USD/JPY up means Yen down and a positive divegrence in Yen futures as of this capture, that is confirmation among multiple assets.

However the point being, this looks like intraday/morning noise thus far. Before we go too much further, lets just look at a larger chart of the $USDX and what the April 2nd forecast for the $USD was.
 Just before the positive divegrence to the left (white) on the $USDX 2-days earlier I posted that the $USD will bounce (along with the market forecast on April 2nd) and then see a reversal and a larger decline. That bounce took place a couple of days after the forecast (after the white accumulation area) and then reversed back down as expected to start the next leg, the larger move down.

In the middle of that we have a quite normal counter-trend correction which has been supportive of the market as the $USD has led the market recently, and last night I said I thought there was a decent chance that the $USD see a little more strength in the area, that would be meaningful on a short term basis to USD/JPY and the market, but after I expect to see the $USD move to continue the reversal to the downside started.

As for sturdier timeframes for USD/Yen than intraday 1 min charts that look to be a bit of noise right now, the 7 min charts (not as strong as the 60 min above).

 For now shows the $USDX in line with 3C confirmation so a small continued bounce (relative to the chart above) is perfectly acceptable and makes sense, that means the Yen would have to have some confirmation as well toward near term weakness.

7 min Yen Futures are perfectly in line and confirmed by 3C on the downside, so despite this morning's 1 min charts, until these longer 7 min charts diverge, I suspect USD/JPY will be exerting more influence on the market to the upside or at least try until we get a head fake move and/or these charts break down which the longer term $USD and Yen forecasts both suggest they will.

Ay least we have an idea of who's in the driver's seat.

The NYSE TICK which was very mellow at the start of this post is seeing some more extreme downside below -1000, but again, thus far this is early intraday typical noise. The charts that are important to us are all broken, but a head fake move is still a high probability.