Market Update

It's always the dull markets that are the dangerous ones. We're seeing more activity, even if not outright in prices.

Take the NYSE TICK for example...

 TICK was dull this morning in a narrow range until a mediocre move at -1000 at intraday lows, but that shot up to over +1350 which is an extreme before trending in a channel as the market was largely lateral at that time.

There has been a little more excitement in TICK since, but it's subtle and looks like it may be coiling some energy for a move above that channel.

Remember yesterday's 2 pm mini flameout and suspicions that might be a toehold for a head fake move higher? Here's a more appropriate example this morning in SPY on increasing volume (10 min) and a bullish Hammer, short term selling event. This is where a small, almost insignificant divergence formed (positive), under normal circumstances I don't even know if I'd mention it, but since there has been a lack of anything in recent days that could lift the market, any change in character at this point is worth mentioning.

 DIA this morning saw non-confirmation intraday on 1 min 3C charts just like the rest of the market, but note the positive at the morning lows and mini intraday capitulation event mentioned above.

Since the 1 min chart has been largely in line with price action. This is NOYT the kind of divergence that would support a strong breakout move which is what a head fake would need to be, at least not on its own without some other levers.

 The 2 min chart which is slightly stronger shows yesterday's 2 pm mini flameout, the area I suspected might be a toehold to try to get something together. As you can see, this morning's intraday lows and mini flameout put in a stronger positive divegrence and a slightly wider one now.

Just don't forget the highest probability resolution, as posted last night and again as a reminder, the much stronger DIA 15 min chart.

 Like all of the other averages it was positive at the 4/2 forecast (except IWM) and has since gone to a deep leading negative divegrence. This is not to say a short term move can't break above resistance areas and even be impressive, this is to say the probabilities of that move being anything other than a head fake are very low and its ability to hold gains are very low, it's more likely to be the pivot point that head fakes often are.

SPY intraday is similar, the opening gap saw no confirmation and a slight positive at the a.m. lows.

This is more or less what most of the averages look like for the most part.

However once again, yesterday's 2 p.m. lows figure in to a larger positive divegrence at this morning's lows as suspected yesterday.

The market still needs to put in that head fake move for it to be useful, other wise we are gathering data and waiting on trades to set up, but once again we are probing that area in the SPX making it more obvious and more likely that we do get an upside head fake breakout.

SPX daily probing resistance again, it's way too clear, way too obvious to believe it's not going to see a head fake (false breakout), I'm not quite sure it will be able to hold it long all things considered, but we'd have to see what the charts look like at that point.