GLD Position Management

*This is just a quick update, I will put out another with charts as soon as I post the market update which is almost complete.

Our GLD Puts are in the double digit gains this afternoon.  It's my intention to try to keep this position open as long as possible in a trend-type (really more of a swing trade, but with more trending qualities) as long as possible which is likely directly related to our $USD counter trend bounce which looks alive and well.

However for those who may wish to take gains more quickly, there will likely be consolidations, gap fills and all of the normal stuff we'd expect of any swing trade for the most part. I did say I expect more "trending qualities", this is really based in the concept to "From a failed move comes a fast reversal". There are a lot of different dynamics at play, the $USD being the largest among them in my opinion.

In any case there's a small intraday divergence on 1 min charts which I would think would cause some more lateral consolidation. There's always the chance of a gap fill as the market has been ruthless the last several years about filling gaps, but in my view the other charts are so significantly damaged that I'm not really concerned with any intraday divergence that may cause lateral consolidation intraday or even a bounce. These are most easily seen on the Gold futures charts so I'll show you the 1 min and the next timeframe, 3 min for perspective...

*Neither of these charts represent the larger swing trend I'd like to capture if the charts cooperate, this is very short term only*

 Gold futures went from the high of the week to the low of the week on this 1 min chart (yesterday at 2:00 a.m. to currently. The 1 min 3C chart has been in line and confirming most of the downtrend at the green arrow, the red arrow just showing the price trend and the white arrow showing an intraday positive divergence that has built some lateral consolidation. This could build out further and even bounce, but it has not migrated to longer charts and as strong as the divergence may look, you have to keep in mind it is on the weakest timeframe possible (1 min).

For some perspective...

This is the recent, much stronger distribution in gold on a 3 min chart which is clearly leading negative.

I'm not concerned about any large moves at present that run counter to the gold short/put position. I do have to warn that there's a chance of some loss of momentum and perhaps of some gains near term if this continues moving laterally intraday or bounces.

From a longer term perspective, I welcome a consolidation, I don't want gold becoming too oversold too quickly as that will produce a larger bounce that would be more damaging when trying to capture as much of the anticipated trend down as I'd like to catch.

If I do see something that looks like a bounce or consolidation of a more than a day, I'd likely exit the position, book the gains and re-enter at the appropriate time rather than let the gains slip away even though longer term I think they'll more than return. It just makes sense to take the gains and do it again if it looks like a trade with good probabilities.