Tuesday, May 19, 2015

Quick Intraday market update

I've seen this pattern in a few individual assets I was looking at on my watch list , then I noticed it in all of the averages so I thought it's worth pointing out, even though it's a bit subtle, it does tell you the message of the market and just adds a bit more to the last "broad" market update.

*I'll have gold and oil updates out soon as well as Treasuries when it looks to be the right time.

 Today's NYSE TICK Index, again pretty tame between + and - 1000 at the far end of the extremes, but note the channels today and the most recent fall out of the channel in yellow.

I don't usually show it this way as the sailing is often difficult, but it's the same NYSE TICK chart, but with the SPY added in red. Note how it's more or less in line with TICK most of the day, but look at what happens when the SPY goes to intraday highs and TICK falls off.

You'd expect to see that represented in intraday 3C charts and you do, but there are also more important events taking place.

 IWM 1 min with an opening (1 min) negative divergence and prices fall from there only to see some accumulation intraday and prices back up. Remember the question for the last post (Market Update BROAD), "what's different?"

Note the 3C negative divergence as well as the TICK divergence at the same spot, the same thing is taking place intraday as we saw on longer/larger charts in the last market update. You have to deal with the cards the market deals and they are.

 However more importantly the 10 min IWM chart is deteriorating now at a faster clip.

QQQ 1 min intraday mostly in line until the afternoon lows with another positive divergence like IWM and the same negative in to higher prices intraday even if not at higher highs.

 The QQQ 10 min chart is surely showing a clear level of deterioration and a fast pace, this is what really is the most important short term signal that will give me a lot of information as o that 3rd trend, the one that makes the bounce of the last week look as meaningless as the dip of last Monday and Tuesday morning.

SPY 1 min showing the same theme intraday

And seeing an increased negative ROC in 3C on the 10 min charts.

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