I wanted to let the a.m. session burn off a bit, there's a lot of game playing early in the day.
So far there's continuation of deterioration from yesterday. The one interesting development that "started" yesterday is the 10 min "gas in the tank" charts that I said I wanted to see fall apart before putting out any larger number of trade ideas as this would be a pre-requisite for the kind of decline I have been expecting since the May 8th "Week Ahead " forecast (for last week which included early week weakness followed by a bounce and then a much larger decline).
There's a bit more damage on the 10 min chart this morning than I would have expected considering where it left off at yesterday's close (which also had shown damage). The chart is not at the area I am looking for as per last Friday's (May 15th's) "Week Ahead", but I didn't expect it to be immediately, it's part of the reversal process that I mentioned last Friday (which I posted a chart of VIX futures and estimated it was about half-way there).
In any case, I'll have the charts up shortly, I just wanted you to know where we stand thus far.
I really want to see some strong signals, especially with the minutes out tomorrow. Granted there's new data since the last F_O_M_C, but anything F_E_D has a very high probability of creating a knee jerk reaction (up our down) so I want to have the strongest objective analysis and position we can have. As I said, charts are on the way.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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