Friday, May 1, 2015

More confirmation of our Near-term Price expectations

I have an email I want to share with you and hopefully will have time to, it's fantastic.

In the meantime, I'm watching the market run up right now as the 2 p.m. (approx.) max-pain options expiration market pin expires. While I obviously think we have more bounce to go, there are signals in VXX (VIX short term Futures) as well as the 3x leveraged UVXY (which is at over a +40% gain since yesterday afternoon) and VIX futures themselves that confirm our near term expectations of a market bounce and that's all. When the charts turn negative intraday for the market, we will be making new lower lows and that proof is being accumulated in VIX products right now.

Remember an accumulation signal is not a signal to necessarily go long, it's showing us what is happening under price's surface as these assets pullback. Te only reason to accumulate them (beyond getting in at lower prices) is because you (and by that I mean smart money), expects the market to end or continue with something much worse than what we have seen this week so far.

 NQ 15 min still showing a nice positive divergence, in line with out bounce expectations...

The 5 min NQ chart is showing no signs of distribution yet.

Nor is the fastest 1 min chart.

For that matter, neither is the 1 min QQQ or any of the other averages...

like SPY which is in line, confirming the bounce intraday.

However, I'd normally expect to see VXX accumulation once the above assets started to show distribution, but it seems someone with deep pockets is willing to grab as much VXX/VIX related assets as possible on cheaper prices and they got started immediately.

VXX
 1 min leading positive divergence in to today's losses...

That signal has migrated to the longer 2 min chart.

UVXY is showing the same accumulation.

And most surprisingly...
VIX Futures are showing intraday accumulation.

It seems to me very clear that once this bounce ends, we are headed for a much nastier downside move in the market.

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