Early Update

All news and macro data aside, as forecasted, Japan which was down -2.7% yesterday closed at near unchanged, green +0.06%, this is the reversal process as we rarely have "V" shaped reversals that hold and we should be seeing a bounce in both the Nikkei and the US markets that will hold beyond just an intraday move. This is not to suggest anything that should be frightening in terms of a bounce, it's just quite normal to loiter in the area of resistance before making that solid break.

Some examples...

 The Nikkei 225 futures on a seven minute 3C chart with that typical rounding/ reversal process while 3C is in a leading positive divergence. Reversals are a process 90% of the time and look similar to this, not an event which looks more like a "V" and as you have seen recently they don't hold up well ("V" shaped reversals).

 Depicted on an SPY daily chart, this bullish Harami reversal is sitting right there at former resistance which became former support which is now resistance again. This is not uncommon for price to loiter in the area for a brief time, it's based on human psychology and our unwillingness to adapt.

 On an intraday chart of the SPY, it looks more like this which is an upside downIgloo with Chimney, yesterday's stop run/head fake being the chimney.

 2/3rds of stocks take their cue, directionally, from broad market. As you can see AAPL looks very similar to SPY as price sits in a Harami reversal and right at resistance/support... Loitering.

To prove this, here is the September top which rolls into the October lows...

Again, note the rounding top and Head fake move (Igloo/Chimney) and price loitering in the area for a brief time before collapsing.

Chinese and European markets were/are closed today for May-day. The UK will be closed Monday.

Yesterday's VXX Put position, Trade Idea: Extremely Speculative (Options/Puts) VXX, is already at the double-digit game in addition to the profits taken inUVXY (long) yesterday. Some of our newer members may be wondering why I took out a May monthly expiration for a bounce, it is not because I believe the bounce will be anywhere near this long, I have just found that using an expiration with at least three times more expiration time that I believe I'll need has increased my winning percentage of trades by at least double. Obviously the percentage gain is lower, but the probabilities are much higher (I also like to buy in the money). Overall, after doing it both ways for quite sometime I have found this to be a much more profitable tactic over the long-term. At least that's my experience.

I'll have updates out momentarily, but so far so good.