The Week Ahead

I feel that we'll definitely be moving toward the 3rd trend forecast from last week, the one that comes AFTER the bounce.

I don't think the bounce is quite complete or its reversal process is not quite complete which means that my first assumption would be that the market would be rangebound and choppy in the area finishing the reversal process, but we also have some very easily recognizable resistance areas that are a hot bed for a head fake move, I have not doubt any head fake move or false breakout would be exactly that.

It's hard to say which scenario is more likely, but the Index futures have turned definitively and unambiguously negative.

Here's what I'm looking for and why I think we may not be at the next trend yet...

 In the simplest terms, the 15 min SPY is already very negative, distribution.

It's the 10 min bounce chart below that looks to me to need a deeper divergence which it wouldn't get on an op-ex pin today.

 SPY 10 min which is the gas in the tank for the bounce expected this week, it has turned negative, but needs to be leading negative like the chart above with no question.

 The 3 min charts' trend shows it has been and continues to head that way, I don't think that changes next week.

The same is true using QQQ as an example-the 10 min bounce chart needs to fall apart more before the next trend/DOWN

The 5 min chart is showing clear, heavy distribution and migration that way, I suspect it will take a couple of days to sufficiently kill the 10 min chart.

As for early trade next week, we don't have any strong signals, this IWM 1 min is the closest thing and it's negative suggesting some early downside, but in the IWM only. This would fit with the idea of range bound action as the reversal process finishes up.

 Looking at VXX it looks to be half way through (or more) its reversal process, but not completely there yet.

The 10 min chart is strong and leading, it just needs the short term reversal process above to conclude.

My word for early next week is PATEINCE.