A.M. Update

Good morning.

After another night of futures rallying, they are coming down a bit now, my guess is that they are coming down close to the area of yesterday's close as that seems to have been the theme for options expiration max pain pins.


Even though our Week Ahead forecast was actually dead on, as I said earlier in the week, I wouldn't try to catch a bounce unless there were supporting signals which never developed. There is a ton of damage/distribution in to any higher prices this week.

 NQ 10 min from Friday with the start of a divergence (we expected more this week) that represented the higher prices through the end of the week, the early in the week lower prices or weakness can be seen at Monday and Tuesday morning and then the bounce we forecasted Friday with distribution through the entirety of it and no additional accumulation through the entire week, even at weakness/lower prices Mon.Tues.

 ES 10 min with a stronger trend, distribution almost throughout.

 And TF 10 min showing very clearly the divergence last week that caused the call for early week weakness followed by a bounce, but that has seen strong distribution signals as well on a very strong timeframe. All of the Futures timeframes for the most part are now aligned negative. This is exactly why I would never be long with signals like this.

 NQ 30 negative

 TF 60 negative

 ES 1 min intraday seeing some downside from overnight gains.

 The $USDX looks like it is ready to start the counter trend bounce we have been expecting which should be interesting as far as correlations.

As such Treasuries should be near ready as well

 Gold Futures with an extremely negative divergence through this parabolic move...

And currently oil is getting crushed.

We'll look for the cash market signals and the op-ex pins end. I suspect we are in for some interesting antics, but also some nice new positions. With distribution like that and so little support, I wouldn't want to be long with free money.