Honestly, I've tried to follow all of the news and links to links with all sorts of different stories and rumors, denials, etc. and I just can't give you anything that you couldn't tell me has already been denied or vice versa. Germany earlier today seemed to squash all of the rumors preemptively in saying that it's too late to discuss any program extension, that would seem to be that, but then the German Finance Minister, probably the most hated man by the Greek delegation is said to have backed down and hinted that Greece may be able to tap an EU Support fund and that even if there is a no vote on Sunday July 5th, he doesn't see Greece exiting the Euro which is how European leaders have been framing the referendum, not as a vote to austerity or telling the Troika to shove it on the bailout, but Greek membership in the Euro or not, which of course Greece has made all kinds of threats of suing and there's the problem that the EU legal framework has no mechanism to expel a country from the EU, but EU leaders sure do seem to be darn worried about it.
Of course the Schaueble comments have not been confirmed by the German Finance Ministry, so they are again rumors.
All we know for sure is that at 5 pm EDT today, we'll know whether Greece has officially defaulted to the IMF or not, which Greece says it will.
on that note, aren't you glad you closed QQQ puts and VXX calls yesterday as the market has bounced overnight?
In other news the PBoC seems to have finally done its job overnight as the Shanghai Composite was down and swung back up with an 11.2% intraday swing to close in the green up +5.6% which is the biggest SHCOMP intraday swing in 23 years! Volatility of bubbles, you have to love them as a trader.
Today is also QUARTER'S END WINDOW DRESSING, so look for rumors to fly fast and furious from every point on the compass as hedge funds try to exit positions at higher prices, THE EXACT SAME THING WE WANTED TO DO YESTERDAY (except open positions like puts in to higher prices).
It will be tempting today to take positions in a bet or gamble based on rumors as to how this whole bonanza in Europe will turn out, perhaps a long position looking for a relief rally on some rumor. I WILL NOT BE ENTERING ANY POSITIONS WITHOUT EXCELLENT OBJECTIVE EVIDENCE. This is NOT a time, it's never a time, to make bets in the market, go to Las Vegas for that.
So any positions taken or exited today will be based on objective evidence as always.
Our objective evidence yesterday suggested a 1-day oversold condition was in effect and the charts backed it, we exited puts that might be underwater today, that's how things will be here today as always, no BETS.
Have a great day!
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