Tuesday, June 30, 2015

Market Reacts to Suspension of EFSF

Who can explain the gyrations of the market? I suspect there's a bit more to it that's a bit less random than it seems, but in any case, the European Financial Stability Fund has confirmed that the Greek bailout expires today... the reaction to these things seems to be best seen in EUR/USD...

 Earlier EUR/USD this morning...

Close up after the EFSF confirmation ending today, meaning no more anything for Greece, at least not until either the referendum scheduled for July 5th is cancelled, assuming the Greek government has the finds to even carry out a vote or until the referendum is cancelled as European leaders would love to see as it seems they are more afraid of the referendum/Democracy than anything.

I set alerts about 30 mins ago for the Q's and SPY to come down, if they do so as they are now and there is stronger evidence for stronger divergences, I "may" consider a VERY short term bounce call position in QQQ, SPY or IWM. I doubt that I'll take such a speculative position, but as it seems nothing will happen until after the referendum, if the market puts in a stronger divergence on this news with prices coming down, knowing nothing will happen until after Sunday, it may be worth the risk as the risk should be less as nothing will happen in Greek talks until after Sunday and if the market is still fine with bouncing knowing that, the wildcard risk is somewhat diminished. I'll of course let you know before engaging in anything this speculative.

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