Market Update

I don't see anything that happened today outside of a BBC story from the Greek side that "Greece is saved", that warrants any jubilation, however I'm not sure the market is ready to end that "early Week price strength/Monday" from the Week Ahead" forecast on Friday. There seems to be a little intraday strength in the charts, while the larger charts are seeing more damage.

Just a quick recap of where the reality of Greece stands as of today's summit as I understand it.

Last Thursday's meeting was a wreck and broke down with the IMF's Christine Lagarde sating there was no reason to engage in dialogue with Greece because for that to happen, there needed to be "Adults in the room".
Hence comes the Monday Finance Ministers meeting so they can review the Greek proposal before a summit of European leaders arrived, again at the behest of Greek PM, Tsipras.

Finance Ministers from all over Europe gathered at 5 pm last night (Sunday) in Brussels to receive the latest Greek proposal, which did not arrive until after midnight!The Fin-mins and their stafff got to work after midnight, 7 hours after the Greek proposal was suppose to arrive, crunching numbers to see if they could make a recommendation to their leaders who were flying in for the summit, who have flown in for the summit.

It turns out the Greek proposal sent at midnight that the European Finance Ministers were number crunching,  was the wrong proposal sent by Athens! The correct proposal didn't arrive until Monday morning. The Greek PM turned up 45 minutes late, nothing new and today there have been a number of Finance ministers voicing their contempt, such as Ireland's Noonan who said it was a waste of SkyMiles. In the end it was said that nothing could be decided because their aides didn't have time to crunch the numbers due to the Greek , "snafu"?

Now the Finance Ministers won't be back in Brussels until Wednesday or Thursday with the EU leaders coming for the summit Thursday/Friday. Remember Greek default occurs at the end of the month when all of June's postponed IMF payments of $1.6 bn Euros are due.

As for the market, there seems to be some late day fooling around, I'm going to check leading indicators just after this post...

 Es 1 min, while there's general deterioration and in a leading negative position, it hasn't gotten much worse than earlier in the day when we were starting to see some real bad leading negative divergences. To the far right I wouldn't call it a positive divergence, but it's holding in the area, which is why I think the market is floating here for time,  there are other, larger signs of underlying trouble through the day.

Russell 2000 futures show the same kind of 3C/price action as ES above and...

VIX futures continue to lead intraday.

This is the 1 min SPY which saw a deep leading negative divergence earlier this afternoon, around the 12:30 Market/Charts Update . Since then I would call the area in yellow "in line" intraday, but not positive, but also not continuing the earlier negative / worsening tone.

 The 2 min SPY trend looks similar to the charts earlier, that's to say not good.

 The intraday 2 min chart is close to inline, not a lot of movement today, but it does  look like the objective today may have been a gap fill.

 The stronger charts like SPY 5 min have seen more deterioration and don't look good at all, although I am not sure I'd say the "Early strength" in price this week is quite done.

There's also more damage today on the IWM 10 min chart at a new leading negative low and the Q's are similar below..

QQQ 10 min, so I do think the gap filling in the SPY and general movement today is unsupported and sold in to.

The current NYSE TICK looks like this...

The bit of later afternoon strength or at least less weakness seems to be fading now as it starts breaking below the late afternoon TICK channel.

HYG is not seeing any additional support building in, it has been losing it all day from last week's very short term in line 3C readings that lasted a good 3 days...

 HYG even worse intraday with a deeper leading negative divergence, I believe its support from last week for 3 to 4 days is over.

Looking at the daily SPY chart, today's Star on the daily candle is not a good sign, but I'd prefer to see volume higher than Friday, although I know Friday was quad-witching, I still think it will be higher at a reversal to weakness this week as forecasted in the "Week Ahead".

I'm going to check out Leading Indicators quickly and keep an eye on things generally as there are still a number of interesting positions like VXX, which would also mean other assets like SPY, QQQ, IWM shorts would be generally ready as VXX long is ready.