Monday, June 22, 2015

Early Indications

It seems the market may be getting a little suspicious of the lack of confirmation since the BBC /Greek Economic Minister story broke.

Here's a look at early action across several of the averages and ES.

 This is the 1 min Es/SPX futures chart since the new week opened with a gap up and this morning's trade since the 9:30 cash open at the green arrow, note the intraday 3C negative divergence in to the last run higher. This isn't screaming, but it does look like a loss of confidence on the news.

 The 1 min SPY which was the chart that led to the Week Ahead forecast of early market strength Monday with the bulk or all of the positive divergence late Friday afternoon seeing a slightly more negative intraday tone now.

 The Q's are also more negative and not confirming the gap up.

the only one that is confirming is the IWM...
 There was an intraday 1 min chart positive divergence in the IWM late Friday as well and the gap up this morning, since then it has been in confirmation with 3C tracking price, not leading positive or negative, just in line.

 The NYSE TICK Index has deteriorated a bit which looks to be on par with the SPY/ES/ QQQ divergences this morning as you can see it has fallen out of the uptrend channel from Friday afternoon this morning.

And the ramping lever of choice, High Yield Corp. Credit is not confirming at all. We had about 3-days last week of HYG short term intraday chart confirmation, that looks to be falling off with price extended away from 3C which has been tracking HYG's downtrend fairly well, this is the basic look of a head fake move, although in this case I think it's just that support the market needed from HYG starting to dissipate.

Taken altogether, if the news was believable, you'd think we'd have some better looking charts than we do right now.

I'm going to keep looking through them and different assets.

As for VXX, I still like it and , but still haven't put out the new Trade Idea, which as I said Friday, is not a matter of not liking the asset, it's a matter of timing.



No comments: