TLT Follow Up / Update

I just closed the TLT July 17th $117 call position at a decent gain,

The P/L came out to a +46% gain on TLT calls.

Again this is a July 17th expiration and I'd like to re-open the position at a better price on a pullback with a longer dated expiration as well as having the opportunity to confirm accumulation in to any pullback. 

The TLT charts themselves look pretty darn good, however some of the 30 year Treasury futures don't look quite as good which is all the more reason for me to protect the gains, look for a better opening and longer expiration and have the objective evidence of accumulation of a pullback which is one of my favorite trade set-ups as you are entering at a better position, but you are under no obligation to enter the trade if the charts don't confirm our expectations of accumulation through a pullback, giving us evidence of continuing bullish tone and letting us chose the time and place of the figurative "Battle".

Once again to get the big picture idea of the trade set-up, see the original Bond Rally / Swing and to understand the Channel Buster Head Fake move, please see  the post above and for more details on Head Fake moves including Channel Busters, see:

Understanding the Head-Fake Move... How Technical Analysis Went From an Asset to a Trap

and

Understanding the Head-Fake Move... Motivation

Here are the TLT charts.

 TLT Daily chart channel buster or trend line in this case. Friday's lows were a head fake/stop run (yellow arrow) on increasing volume,

However despite today's intraday 1min chart's confirmation, look at volume on the move., it's falling off through the day, not very inspiring near term when you have a near 50% gain that can be wiped out in a day.

 Here's a closer look at volume on the intraday chart today.

The ZB/30-year Treasury futures intraday chart also didn't look good intraday going from confirmation to a deep leading negative divergence.

The 2 min chart in TLT also went from a relative negative divergence to a stronger leading negative divergence so I didn't feel now was the time to take chances with calls expiring in a couple weeks.

 3 min chart showing the head fake accumulation on a stop run and a negative divergence in to the price gains short term.

The stronger 5 min chart shows the head fake/stop run below former support which saw increased volume and a nice positive divergence so near term, I'd expect a pullback in TLT in which we can use it to confirm TLT's short term accumulation as well as get a better entry and longer dated calls.

The 10 min chart shows the same and looks good for the bigger picture.

As does the 30 min chart.

And even though I wouldn't expect it for a counter trend move, even the 60 min chart has some decent positive divergences.

The Treasury futures charts don't look as good, but the futures' timeframes are much faster and more temperamental than here in the cash market so they may very well be reflecting the pullback I hope and expect to see that allows us to re-enter a new position with a longer expiration while locking in nice gains in the mean time, allowing us to do it again, but with confirmation that the pullback is accumulated.

Since starting this post or at least since posting the closing of the position, TLT's price chart has gone flat, opening the door to a downside pullback. I'll be setting price alerts below as a reminder to check out the charts in looking for a new entry/position, no different than the QQQ puts yesterday or VXX calls yesterday and perhaps even the USO puts.