Quick Intraday Update

A lot of people want to know how I think the market is going to close, honestly there are divergences, but just as I posted in the TLT update, divergences or the act of accumulation or distribution is not an event, it's a process so an intraday divergence in and of itself, unless absolutely screaming and with confirmation, is not necessarily an intraday sell signal. We watch volume , the intraday breadth via the TICK index, 3C charts and any other indicators you find useful to determine whether or not we are going to see an intraday move such as a decline in to the close.

If I don't know, I'll tell you I don't know. I don't dig the false hope of the Guru crowd who always has the comforting answer, even though they have no better idea than anyone else, it seems as long as they "seem" sure about it, like Cramer, people will let a lot of bad calls go by unchecked and it's because of the nature of the market and the nature of humanity seeking assurances. However if I don't know, that doesn't mean I won't try to find out.

The bigger issue right now is the Week Ahead and I'm just about ready to start that post. I'll give you a sneak peak just in case you need to make any adjustments, I'm leaving all positions in place including VXX puts, UVXY short and IWM calls.

I'm also leaving trend trades in place, these are largely core/trend shorts. Each trade is meant for a specific timeframe and I let them do their job, picking the right tool for the job is essential and while we could trade around these larger trend positions, just remember the fancy trading around AAPL when we knew it was going down, a few little trades to try to get better positioning and losing positioning on the trend that lost -45% in 8 months with no leverage. 

In any case, I'm looking for the same thing I've said the last few days (actually most of the week), but after going through all of the assets today, I FEEL VERY STRONGLY WE GET A PULLBACK EARLY NEXT WEEK, IT COULD BE A GAP FILL, IT COULD EVEN BE A HEAD FAKE TO A NEW LOCAL LOW, BUT I BELIEVE THIS GIVES US THE 1-5 MIN CHART DIVERGENCES (TIMING) WE NEED AS THE TREND/BASE DIVEGRENCES LOOK MUCH STRONGER SO I THINK WE BOUNCE NEXT WEEK, BIGGER THAN THIS WEEK'S EXPECTED BOUNCE AND I BELIEVE THAT PRICE ACTION WILL GIVE US PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITIES TO ADD POSITIONS IN TO THAT PULLBACK WITH THE CONFIDENCE OF KNOWING WE AREN'T ENTERING ANYTHING WITHOUT OBJECTIVE EVIDENCE AND OVERWHELMING. THAT SAID, I FEEL VERY GOOD THAT WE GET THIS MOVE AND AFTER IT IS DONE, SHORT SET UPS FOR TREND TRADES AND LOOK OUT BELOW.

I'll be posting the charts for my Week Ahead post next.