Friday, July 10, 2015

A.M. Update

Good morning.

Other than the change in Chinese authorities' policy of threatening to arrest sellers/short sellers to actually doing so, which you'd think would upset citizens considering it is suppose to be a free market, I suppose no one in China really cares that much so long as the SHCOMP closes up over 4.5%. I wonder if Americans would give up their civil liberties to maintain their wealth effect? OK, please don't email me with answers to that rhetorical question.

The overnight risk on sentiment is clearly based on Greece's PM, Tsipras who has sold out the nation's overwhelming No vote as he has proposed virtually the exact same package that caused Athens to break-off negotiations, walk out and call a referendum. The results of the referendum were a landslide, the people voted no to the deal, Tsipras just sent the Troika the exact same deal and is trying to push it through parliament, which raises the same question I asked about China, if in Greece's situation, I wonder if the citizens would vote to become a debtors' colony and if they voted against it, would the politician's uphold their wants and desires. I suppose I know the answer to that one too, but wow, what a horrible weak for freedom.

Remember the signals this week have been horrible, they haven't been strong. The last time that happened the market was nearly dead flat for about a month, which in retrospect, really made you respect the signals , otherwise you would have been sitting in open risk with no movement, that's what 3C was telling us.

This week....
The SPY will open where it closed last Friday, despite all of the volatility, the 3C signals have been correct in that the market has barely moved from a week ago.

I just went through about 80 futures charts in various timeframes and for the most part the Index futures have improved with stronger positive signals all the way out to 60 min charts, I'll post a sample of these just after the open, but right now we have a mixed set of signals that makes me want to take gains off the table and sit back and see if the cash charts improve, I'll probably give it a little bit to see how the cash signals look, but the 1 min index futures look like this...
 Es 1 min looks negative going in to the cash open much like yesterday, however...

 Both NASDAQ and Russell futures are in line.

As for the longer /stronger charts...

 ES 10 min has gained strength as have all the Index futures.

This is Russell 2000 futures positive on a 30 min chart so it looks like the bigger picture wants to bounce from this area, ES inrtraday looks like it wants to show some weakness.

I really have to see what cash markets look like, but I'm considering taking gains and then reassessing the market and deciding if I really trust if they develop in the cash market and if I want to base the market's spastic response on Greece?

No comments: