The Week Ahead

I pretty much told you what I think happens next week, not only all day through numerous posts and the last couple days building toward today, but in the last post, Quick Intraday Update. Now I'll show you why.

I hope you can remember the Index futures charts, if not just go back and take a look at the post, Futures Indications you can also check out, BROAD MARKET UPDATE and LEADING INDICATORS, but this is pretty simple.

The short term charts are the most probable near term action. Remember 3C divergences tend to pick up where they left off so a negative intraday divergence at the close is likely to see weakness Monday morning. I expect a pullback, the charts are there, it's pretty simple, but these are the weakest charts, the 1 min intraday charts and such. The strongest charts in the 15 min range also typical of a swing trade are strong. For the short term charts to go positive they need a pullback as smart money doesn't chase stocks higher, they buy low and sell high.

With that in mind, these charts are pretty simple to follow the logic of a pullback, improved charts in timing/short term and a decent bounce.

 SPY 1 min intraday negative

 SPY 15 min trend positive

QQQ 1 min intraday negative

QQQ 15 min trend positive

IWM 1 min intraday negative

IWM 15 min trend positive

Remember VXX trades opposite the market and we have a short in VXX and UVXY. VXX 1 min intraday positive

UVXY 2 min intraday positive, but weak.

VXX 5 min trend leading negative

XIV is the inverse of VXX, so it trades WITH the market. XIV 1 min leading negative

 XIV 5 min tend leading positive

HYG is the lever they pull to support the market by rallying it. HYG 1 min largely in line with a small negative divergence in to the close.

HYG 15 min trend and very strong chart leading positive


All of the near term charts are also the weakest charts, they point to the pullback Futures point to, the same pullback or constructive pullback needed to swing the 1-3 min charts or timing charts positive.

The 15 min charts are magnitudes stronger and their trends have improved significantly, they are showing large accumulation areas and a large base area. Their near term (next week) highest probability is a pretty darn strong bounce.

I'm looking for intraday charts early next week to exhibit some weakness and start to accumulate on a pullback, that pullback could be a gap fill or a new low stop run, after that the 5-15 min charts should take over and take us higher until they start to fail at which point we'll be looking at new or additional short positions in to price strength/underlying weakness/distribution.

Today is the clearest the charts have been since Tuesday, but that's typically the case the last 2 hours of Friday when we get the best 3C data of the week.

Have a GREAT weekend!