Thursday, January 14, 2010

A Conundrum-I need your feedback

I had a member mention that there are a lot of stocks I list to sort through and it would be easier to have a a few of the high probability each day and limit the list. To save time, here' my response,

" I struggle with the same issue you mention. Believe me! I'd like to give 3 stocks that I know for sure will pop tomorrow and that would be the easiest and best for all involved. I spend all day looking at the market and take an hour break after close to talk to my significant other then spend the rest of the night until the list is updated going through each idea-and usually publish at 11pm-1am so it's about 7-8 hours at night plus market hours, running scans, back tests, literally looking at thousands of stocks.

So the difficulty is, this market may be nearing an end of the Bull and ready to reverse. These positions took someone with a lot of money time to accumulate and they know it's difficult to get the demand and markup they need to sell at a profit if the market turns, so many patterns are breaking out early, before they are fully done accumulating. I'm seeing it more everyday. These are patterns I would not normally list in WOWS, but anyone of them could be the one that breaks out today or tomorrow. Also I'm throwing shorts in for those who believe we are close to a reversal and some trades that aren't going to be #1 performers, but have huge potential over the next few months. I try to make the distinctions in the note section. The idea to really making money there is to probably take on multiple positions, but ones that fit with your style and analysis. The risk management I talk so much about should allow you to be wrong many times and still have plenty left for the big one that we get almost everyday. If done properly, you won't lose more than 1-2% of your portfolio on any one trade and most cases, if you follow my guidelines on risk, a lot less than that. Even in the case of a 10% gap down, my guidelines suggest a position doesn't take up more than 10% of your portfolio, so still you are at a 1% loss. It's difficult for me because I have limited the list and not included stocks I liked and saw them run 30% the next day. It's a conundrum! But of everyone who signed up, I've only had emails thanking me and that they made money , etc. You know I end every post "if you are not sure, email me" I haven't received one of those emails yet. So I'll try to add more details to the notes, "this is a long term trade, this is one for quick pop, etc" and you can find what you think you want to trade, but if it doesn't pop the first day, it doesn't mean it won't, but if I continue to list past trades that haven't popped, the list gets that much longer, but they are still great looking trades. And unfortunately our spread sheet can't show you the possibilities of gains that were there. For example a stock makes a 100% gain for the day, but closes down to 50% gain (happened yesterday). I say-take those gifts. So while some stocks may only show a 5% gain or even a loss, at some point there may have very well been a 30-40% gain available, which I say "take some or all of that gift". In the long run, I think the majority of these stocks move big. The ones that don't -even if they are at a 12% loss, shouldn't cost you more than 1-2%. Thanks for the feedback, I'm going to take it into consideration and see if there' a better way to do this. In the meantime, EMAIL ME! Tell me what you are looking for and I'll point you to the most probable candidate."


So, I need feedback. How can I make this list the most useful for you? I can suggest if there's a stock that hasn't broken out and pre-market action suggests a gap up-that's a high probability trade that should be bought. I could list limit orders on the breakout, but then you'll miss a lot of the gains. Give me your feedback because I work a lot to bring you these ideas and it doesn't help anyone if they are not helpful. So tell me what you think will make this better for you. And as always, email me! I am willing to do what I can to help you attain your goals, but everyone is different, so one size doesn't fit all and the only way I can personalize it is if if you email me your questions about the trades you like or the kinds of trades you are most comfortable with.

Thanks!