Patience and A Steady, Steeled Hand.....

Market volatility is always crazy at tops, this is why I tell most of my students to leave the top and bottom 10-20% alone and go for the 80 % in the middle of a trend, these are just too volatile for most people.

So you must be feeling anxious, don't. We are where we are and we've taken the positions we've taken. If you have been at WOWS for awhile you should have some core shorts that will hedge any downside break of our long poitions, but let me remind you of last night's post on T.G

"As for tomorrow, we have negative divergences in the 1-5 min charts, this suggests continued downside. Considering the accumulation zone, I suspect prices are heading lower to test $107.30, if that fails, then  possibly as low as $105.25. There could even be a test below $105.25 and we could still maintain a bullish perspective for the short term. However, this is a huge gamble to take, at least if you are not long term short and hedged as many of our Wolf on Wall Street members are."


So $107.30 seems to be history, to take out $105 they'll need to go down to $104.75 to hit the majority of limits, so while down there why not take out February's $104.56-I wouldn't think it would be wise from thier perspective if they intend to shoot this market back up, but they know more than do I. 


In any case, I do believe this is another false breakout/Shakeout. You may want to freestyle this one a bit and dump some of the planning and take on some 2 or 3x leveraged long ETF's-they are on both lists. The trick is timing, if we break $105 then any move above $105 intrday, you'll want to go long right in that area, maybe a little higher. The idea is that all the weak longs are shaken out and the shorts are trapped in a squeeze. so that's plan A.


Plan B is, "This breakdown is for real", which it may be but I have a hard time believeing smart money would accumulate at higher levels and then just let all that inventory go at a loss, if it were not for that reason, I'd be telling you to load up 100% short right now. So I'm doing what I tell you to do, trust your indicators, ignore your emotions and make rational decisions based on the evidence you have right now, that is the very best you can do. Second guessing at this point is out if pure fear and fear is not objective and it's also not good for you in the markets like it is in life. The market's count on the human fight or flight mechanism and use fear to make money, so this is one place it won't serve you well.


Back to plan B-a break below $104 and most likely the worm has turned. Remember that you should have risk management plans/stops in place before you enter the trade, also remember that stops are to be executed on closing numbers only, not intraday swings. So you have an entire day to see what will happen and my money is on "False breakdown" and a rally after that, maybe right off the open.


I'll be updating in both places today after 12.


By the way "sell in MAy and go away-" Sell at the end of April and buy back at the end of may 7 of 10 of the last years, May is up.